Let's start with John Edwards. In spite of investing a huge amount of time in Iowa, he failed to win that key state for him, achieving a small moral victory with a narrow second place finish. He steadily declined from there, threatening a comeback in South Carolina. Though his 18% in SC was considerably better than he performed in Nevada, it's just not good enough. Basically it means that in a state that (a) he was born in, (b) he represented a neighbor of in the Senate, (c) he won n 2004, and (d) he bought more TV ads than Clinton and Obama combined, he still barely cleared the 15% hurdle for delegates. With the race now moving to many states across the country, don't expect Edwards to clear 15% in too many of them. With delegates awarded by Congressional District in many states, he still will pick up some handfuls of delegates, but unlikely enough to influence the outcome, unless it is basically a tie between Obama and Clinton.
Barack Obama performed magnificently in the four early states. He won the crucial Iowa vote by an impressive margin, and later won South Carolina by a landslide. He achieved a tie, sort of, in Nevada, by winning the delegate count there, and only lost by two points in New Hampshire, where he tied for delegates. Over all, Obama won the the most votes in the four states and won the most delegates awarded through the four nominating contests.
However, it is very unlikely that his successes to date will win him the presidency. Given Hillary Clinton's huge national lead in the polls before the early states started voting, as well as her institutional support across the country, he really needed to land a knock-out punch in the early rounds. Four straight victories could well have done the trick, and three out of four victories would have been close. But two clear victories out of four was just not enough to knock Hillary out. Her 20 point lead in national polls has essentially been cut in half, but it's difficult to imagine what could happen between now and Feb. 5 that would allow him to catch up to Hillary. Plus, as we see below, the calendar starts to favor Hillary.
Clinton survived the first four states on her feet. Of course she would have preferred to come closer to Obama tonight, but she escaped the worst case scenario, which would have been a poor third place showing behind Edwards. Because a 3-person race could complicate Hillary's effort to win a majority of delegates, but tonight's results weaken Edwards path from here on out.
From here on out, the calendar favors Clinton. First, she'll win big in Florida in just three days. There have been a lot of back and forths in the campaign and on the net as to whether Florida "counts" or not. Not surprisingly, supporters of both candidates exaggerate. Obviously it will not be given the same importance in the media as South Carolina, but neither will it be treated like Wyoming. At the very least it will provide a small break in momentum that Obama gathers post South Carolina, and will thus make it more difficult for him to claim that his wins in Iowa and South Carolina mean that he can also win in large states with very different demographics.
Then, on Super Tuesday, 22 states, America Samoa, and Democrats Abroad will hold nominating contests. As Chris Bowers lays out, Hillary holds polling leads in 10 of the 12 largest states that day, and in only one of those ten is her current lead smaller than 12 points. In some of those states, such as California, considerable numbers of people have already voted through absentee ballot. About half the states exclude independents from participating. Almost all the large states hold primaries rather than caucuses. In many of these states, the number of African Americans is matched or surpassed by the numbers of Latinos plus Asians, both groups that are leaning heavily toward Hillary. And the fact that so many states are voting on the same day, just 10 days from now, will mean that neither Obama nor Edwards can do the kind of intense retail politicking in individual states that has served them well previously.
I have seen no serious analysis suggesting that Barack Obama can win the majority of states or delegates that day. The only question is how big Hillary Clinton's margin. Democratic Party nominating rules, which mandate proportional representation, will hold the margin down somewhat. However, Hillary's strong lead in the largest states suggest that she will come out of that day with a minimum of 100 more delegates than Obama and perhaps a lead for the day of 200+ delegate. That, plus her lead in Super Delegates, would give her a very big lead toward the nomination. The calendar is a bit more friendly for Obama for a few weeks, but the largest remaining states post Feb. 5 -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas -- should all be solidly in Hillary's camp.
Hillary will then go into the convention with the most elected delegates, as well as the most Super Delegates. Even without counting delegates from Michigan and Florida, I expect that she'll have a majority of all delegates (and, with Michigan and Florida delegates counted, I would consider her majority almost ensured.) From the way I look at it, the most that anti-Hillary forces could achieve -- and this is probably a long-shot--would be narrowly denying Hillary a majority of the remaining delegates if Michigan and Florida delegates are not counted. In such a case, uncommitted Super Delegates would likely decide the matter, most likely by tilting the nomination to Hillary in exchange for her offering the VP slot to Obama.
In summary, I think that each of the three candidates has achieved something in this "pre-season." Edwards has put forth a powerful anti-poverty message, and earned himself an excellent possibility of a cabinet post in a Democratic nomination. And he still has a small chance of being a kingmaker.
Obama came close to toppling the front-runner. He has an outside chance at the nomination and, if he fails, an excellent chance at the vice-presidency.
Hillary Clinton would have course preferred to have swept the initial states and clinched the nomination early. However, she did what she had to do: her two early wins, albeit by smaller margins than Obama's, combined with her two wins in the larger but unofficial states, essentially give her a tie in the pre-season. That means she maintains enough of her national lead to win big on Super Tuesday and proceed to the nomination.
Of course there have been many surprises to date and there may be more in the future. But that's the way the race looks to me tonight.
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