By L. C. Johnson (bio/blog)
The upcoming Tuesday primary in New Hampshire should have some surprises. The slate of candidates for both Republicans and Democrats sets up an interesting dynamic. Party registration in New Hampshire is not hard and fast--Republicans and Independents can vote Democratic and Democrats and Independents can vote Republican. I do not recall a time in the last 30 years when you have had the kind of competition and national implications at stake as exist in the candidacies of Mike Huckabee for the Republicans and Barack Obama for the Democrats.
My guess at this point is that the controversy surrounding Huckabee will distract the independents and republicans who, in other circumstances, might have crossed party lines to vote for Obama. With Obama having to rely on a more traditional Democratic voter turnout, he may not sustain the momentum he picked up in Iowa. Let's also not forget that the media, ever eager to crown a new messiah, will now turn on their messiah (Obama) and work on tearing him down. That's what they do.
New Hampshire, for John Edwards, is do or die. I fear without a victory that he will not have the money he needs to sustain his campaign. Looks like the Republican establishment is going to rally around McCain. While Mitt Romney does not have to worry about money, his viability depends on demonstrating that a sizeable number of Republican faithful will vote for him.
So what do you think?
See Also: My commentary last night at my blog, "Iowa, A Pimple on the Gnat’s Ass."