More good news..McCain is tied to Bush:
At 23 percent, Bush's job approval rating has fallen below Nixon's lowest; it's a point away from the lowest in 70 years of polling, set by Harry Truman in early 1952. Bush's disapproval, meanwhile, is at an all-time record – 73 percent.
History as prologue:
Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.
Wind to Obama's back:
The economy is not the only wind at Obama's back. McCain's receiving blowback for what's perceived as negative campaigning; registered voters by 59-35 percent say he's been mainly attacking Obama rather than addressing the issues. Obama, by contrast, is seen by an even wider margin as issue-focused.
The issue advantage helps Obama another way; among likely voters who say they care more about the candidates' positions on the issues than their personal qualities he leads McCain by a huge 39 points, 68-29 percent. McCain leads broadly among those who say personal qualities matter more, but there are fewer of them.
The debates also seem to have helped Obama; 32 percent say they have a better opinion of him as a result of the two debates so far, vs. just 8 percent worse. For McCain it's 12 percent better, 26 percent worse. Their third and final debate is Wednesday.
One apparent result of these factors is a drop in McCain's favorability rating, to 52 percent, a loss of 7 points since the Republican convention; 45 percent now see him unfavorably, a new high for McCain in polls since 1999. Obama's rating, meanwhile, is 64 percent favorable, near its high and up 6 points in the same time frame.
Enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy, never strong, has softened alongside his favorability rating. Just 29 percent of his own supporters are "very enthusiastic" about his campaign, the fewest since August and down a sharp 17 points from his post-convention peak. By contrast, 63 percent of Obama's backers are very enthusiastic, steady since September.
UPDATE: Today's Gallup:
Gallup Daily: Obama Ahead, 51% to 41% NEW
October 13, 2008
Barack Obama leads John McCain by 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%, among all registered voters, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 10-12. That lead narrows to seven points among traditional “likely voters”.
http://www.gallup.com/...
A lot of KOSsacks are all freaking out because Bill Kristol's NYT article saying McCain is planning a "reboot" of his campaign. How many times do you have to reboot, before you finally realize the motherboard is fried, the hard drive is shot, and the amount of RAM is terribly inadequate?
McCain can "reboot" all he wants, but unless he starts swapping out the many damaged components of his machine...he'll have a hard time getting anywhere in the polls..and with three weeks to go..McNasty is running on empty.
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