Now for a quick tour of Canada.
NEWFOUNDLAND: The Tories (Conservatives) held the three St. John's seats, the Liberals the four rural ones, but they are the victim of Danny William's ABC campaign and may be shut out. It is all but guaranteed that St. John's East will go NDP, while the other two will probably go Liberal. NDP has a small chance still in St. John's South.
P.E.I.: Completely Liberal since 1988, the two westernmost seats are too close to call, given that Dion's Green Shift came down like a lead balloon here.
NOVA SCOTIA: The NDP has their best Maritime results here and have improved during the campaign. They have 2 very close targets and an outside chance in 3 others. The Tories need to hold Central Nova from the NDP and Green leader Elizabeth May, the South Shore from the NDP and possibly grab West Nova from the Grits (Liberals). The Liberals have nothing to look forward to; Independent Sean Casey will have no problems.
NEW BRUNSWICK: The best prospects for the Tories are here in the Western, Anglophone half of the province, with 3 potential gains. Whether the NDP vote can be squeezed will decide the outcome.
QUEBEC: The Bloc managed to beat back the Tories and is threatening them in the Saguenay and Quebec City. An NDP vote squeeze is key; advance voting in Quebec City is VERY HIGH. Elsewhere they're pretty much set to go.
Montreal is a bit different, where they must defend two very vulnerable seats from the Grits. Both MPs were in one of their ads, and face the former MP in one and Justin Trudeau in the other. The NDP needs to hold Outremont, which should'nt be too hard, and possibly snatch Westmount although this is unlikely.
In Gatineau one Liberal and one BQ MP must stave off the NDP; Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon should be reelected.
ONTARIO: It appears the Liberals have regained the lead. The NDP is quite strong in the province, possibly as high as 26%, and needs to protect one endangered incumbent in Hamilton, make a few gains in the South and romp in the North, mostly at the Liberals expense. It is unclear if and how much the Tories will extend into Toronto; the 416 area code is OK for the Liberals except downtown. Gerard Kennedy was trailing in a recent poll, another poll has the Grit lead there over the NDP cut by two-thirds which could precipitate a couple of losses.
MANITOBA: St. Boniface could fall to the Tories, Churchill in the North to the NDP.
SASKATCHEWAN: The NDP have a couple of too-close-to-cll targets but have improved recently. The Liberals will hold Wascana but not regain the seat they lost in the recent by-election.
ALBERTA: Safe, safe Tory. Well, one exception. Edmonton-Strathcona is too close and some Liberals plan to vote strategically.
B.C.: Whoa! polling is a bit all over the place. The Tories expect to pick up at least 4 seats on the basis of a low Liberal vote. The NDP might pick off a couple, but must defend the open Surrey North and ultra-maginal Vancouver Island North. The Liberals only have a chance in Saanich-Gulf Islands against Nat. Res. Min. Gary Lunn, where the NDP candidate withdrew. The Greens might be out of luck; their best results are here.
NORTH: Yukon: Liberal NWT: NDP win with fairly strong Tories. NUNAVUT: Too close, but the Tories may pick this open seat up from the Grits.
Let's hope for the best!
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