Zogby + 12! Down to three scenarios

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Thursday October 23, 2008 · 12:04 AM PDT

2008/10/23 · 00:04

As the tracking poll averages continue to rise for Obama, it becomes increasingly unlikely that Barack can lose the popular vote.

Tonight's release of the latest Zogby numbers (O=52 / M=40) along with the last two nights of the Kos R 2000 tracking ( Obama +10.5 and rising) begin to hint at an enduring double digit lead that could not be erased in 12 days.

Similarly, the new ABC tracking poll has a durable track around Obama + 10 points, and Gallup's RV numbers have been at 9 points and above for several days.

This does NOT mean that Obama has the election won, as we are all talking about the electoral votes of volatile states and the "soft underbelly" of the Pennsylvania numbers (Obama + 11 in public polling but + 2 or so in campaign polling). So here are the remaining possibilities:

Obama wins the popular vote and the electoral vote in a rout ( in this scenario many of the electoral votes from the swing states may still be close: Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio).

Obama wins the popular vote and squeaks by in the electoral college (with Virginia and Colorado putting him over the top after securing the Kerry states + Iowa and New Mexico). THIS may be the likeliest scenario.

Obama wins the popular vote but barely loses the electoral college, losing Colorado, New Hampshire and one other of the core states. This FRIGHTENING possibility is reason enough to ignore 1) and 2) and look to put effort every day into phoning, walking, contributing.

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