Updated: New Pew Poll, Obama +15 Among Likely Voters; +16 Among Registered

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Tuesday October 28, 2008 · 7:31 AM PDT

2008/10/28 · 07:31

Good polling number from Pew.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

A breakdown of voting intentions by demographic groups shows that since mid- September, McCain’s support has declined significantly across most voting blocs. Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.

For likely voters:

When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

I think the reason why we see some polls tightening (Zogby, Rasmussen) is because of a weekend-pattern that starts happening since mid September.

Look at the RCP Average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

and you will notice that the 'Monday' tracking polls are tighter than the latter ones...

Update:
Thanks for the Rec :)

Also for comparison sake... in 2004, Pew's last poll was Bush 51, Kerry 48. They were spot on!

President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center's final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided.

Update x2:
Since I'm on REC list... I want to make one more point.

THIS NUMBER SHOULD NOT GIVE YOU A FALSE SENSE OF COMFORT! GO OUT, CANVASS/PHONE BANK/DONATE!

Update x3:

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