Great polls! Obama up in all 8 battleground states in new AP survey

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Wednesday October 29, 2008 · 4:24 AM PDT

2008/10/29 · 04:24

Another day, another great batch of state polling for Obama. Even Ron Fournier couldn't spin this one positively for McCain. And remember this is the same pollster which got people jumping up and down with their national poll a week ago which showed McCain only -1 among LV despite being minus 10 among RV. No such problems this time round!

The full results are here

Summary figures:

Florida O +2 (45-43)
North Carolina O +2 (48-46)
Ohio O +7 (48-41)
Virginia O +7 (49-42)
Pennsylvania O +12 (52-40)
Nevada O +12 (52-40)
Colorado O +9 (50-41)
New Hampshire O +18 (55-37)

The Nevada and New Hampshire results are the obvious standouts here - New Hampshire looks pretty much off the table for McCain, while this result in Nevada is Obama's highest poll rating all year. With early voting well under way there, Nevada is looking an increasingly likely pick-up for Obama.

Elsewhere, the results look fairly consistent with what other polling has been showing. McCain is still gaining no traction in Pennsylvania, which looks a lost cause for him. Florida and North Carolina are both highly competitive, but Ohio is looking strong for Obama, along with Colorado and Virginia.

The one bright point for McCain is that there are relatively high undecideds in all these polls, and Obama is only over 50 in 4 of the 8 states polled. But as Nate Silver has recently pointed out, undecideds are unlikely to break huge for McCain, and the slightly positive impact they are likely to have for him will often be offset by pollsters underestimating cell phone users and the turnout of groups favourable for him in their LV models, and his overall conclusion is that

the numbers are more likely to be underestimating Obama's standing than overestimating it.

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