Gallup Sunday: 52% O - 43% M; CNN: 53% O

Gallup Sunday: 52% O - 43% M; CNN: 53% O - 46% M

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Sunday November 02, 2008 · 10:05 AM PST

2008/11/02 · 10:05

All this talk of the 50% thresholds, mainly looking at those rediculous Mason Dixon polls, has got me laughing at the pundits as they buy into the GOP talking points.

In 2004, Kerry was supposed to take undecides overwhelmingly to win from 48-47 deficit... that didn't happen as Bush's base turned out.

This year, we have one candidate doing GOTV like never before and the other not even with GOTV people on the ground. The media is of course ignoring all this because this is how Obama wins and they are keeping the story on ice until Tuesday.

As of now:

CNN:
Obama 53% (51%)
McCain 46% (46%)

Undecideds - 1%... No hope for McCain here

Gallup Traditional
Obama 51%
McCain 43%

Voters' presidential preferences remain favorable to a Barack Obama win on Tuesday, with 51% of traditional likely voters supporting the Democratic nominee for president, and 43% backing John McCain. An additional 1% say they support some other candidate, leaving 5% undecided.

8 - 5 = 3.... Minimum Obama Margin of Victory

Gallup Expanded
Obama 52%
McCain 43%

An expanded likely voter model uses only voters' interest and self-professed likelihood to vote in the current election. On this basis, Obama leads by nine points -- 52% to 43% -- also with 1% supporting some other candidate and 5% undecided. The expanded model assumes that voter turnout may follow different patterns this year than historically, such as with greater participation by new or infrequent voters.

9 - 5 = 4... Minimum Obama Margin of Victory

Gallup Registered
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

The expanded likely voter results are not much different from those based on all registered voters. Among the entire sample of eligible voters, Obama leads by 11 points, 52% to 41%. Another 1% name a different candidate while 7% are undecided.

11-7 = 5... Minimum Obama Victory Margin likely

What does this tell you? We have the votes IN THE FIELD and IN LINE to win, now, all we have to do is drag them across the finish line.... Get back out there and make it happen folks...

This one is for our future.

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