First, while much of Appalachia became more Republican, the rate of decline in those areas tended to be smaller in 2008 than in previous election cycles. So, there is some good news to come away with. Concerning the state of the Democratic Party in Appalchia, I will point out a couple of things:
- Most of the decline in Democratic performance was small. My county, for example, showed about a 3% decline in presidential and senatorial voting from 2004. Kerry nor Gore fared much better than Obama did, and congressional candidates were beaten by about the same marks as Obama.
This indicates the direct racial effect (well, let's be blunt, racism) is a factor, but not an overwhelming one. More indirect racial factors, such as the Democratic Party being identified as the "party of African-Americans" have played a role in the past, and combined with anti-liberal sentiment, which is still strongly felt by Baby boomers in these areas, as well as the historical tendency many people show to continue their voting habits through time, probably make up this long decline we've been seeing here.
But, I think the racial element is probably the easiest of those factors to overcome. If Obama has a good first term, much of the "purely racial" part of this equation fades away.
The legacy of a "lost generation" to the Democrats will remain for awhile regardless, however.
- Local Democratic parties can still do well throughout Appalachia, but again its a historical legacy issue. In those counties where local Democrats still control, its because they've maintained strong organizations and keep running candidates that win election after election. As those candidates, and the voters who vote for them, age, retire, and die off, however, the grip local Democratic parties maintain slips away.
And these counties tend to vote Republican nationally about as much as the counties in which the local GOP is now the majority party.
- Many counties now have local Democratic organizations that are practically empty shells. They've lost most if not all the local seats, they're way behind in national voting trends, they're base is aging, and they're demoralized. Generally poor organization.
- Changing demographics and economics. These county's population are getting older. Many young people who could be the new base for the Democrats move away to find better jobs in urban or suburban environments, while at the same time more conservative retirees move into these communities. The older industrial base in most of these counties (mining, textiles, steel and other industrial plants) that help sustain unions who can turn out larger Democratic vote are gone or are in steady decline.
- Religious identification. Evangelical denominations are the large majority in these areas, and for Baby-boomer evangelicals especially, there has been about a 4-1 identification of Republican vs. Democratic. Abortion tends to be the major issue at work here.
I would say that 2, 3, 4, and 5 tend to be larger effects on voting trends than race is in number 1. Race and racial issues always gets attention, but while it is present, numbers 2-4 present the more long-term challenge for Democrats in Appalachia and other rural areas. Even number 5, the religious issue, is showing some signs of weakening a bit. Younger evangelicals are not as inclined to mix politics and religion as their Baby-boomer counterparts have been, and of course they aren't as affected by "the sixties" and the events of that decade, which continue to reverberate forward in time.
What do Democrats need to do to counter this?
- Rebuild the local organizations along the Obama model. A revamped organization can do outreach to irregular voters, and bring more of them on-board, rebuilding the party's base, which should slowly begin to increase again as younger generations become of age. We can do this by helping neighborhoods with problems directly as community service, getting local problems solved where the local government isn't doing anything about it.
- Work across county lines to support each other more effectively in congressional elections.
- Develop our own means of communication to voters that bypasses the local papers and radio stations, which tend to be conservative, as well as Fox news, the most watched 24-hour news network in these areas.
- Have the President and Congress do well over the next few years. We can't control that locally, but it would be an enormous help to our efforts. It would also help if the national and state Democratic parties would help these struggling local organizations with grants or loans as the money becomes available.
I don't know how quickly the Democratic Party can become competitive again in these areas. My first reaction is that it will take a generation, but political swings can occur faster sometimes than we think.
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