And Per the Plank
If a few extra weeks would help Obama, the opposite is true for Clinton, whose advisers would be happy with just a few extra days, they said in interviews Friday.
If you want the best case for Obama's electability in November, here it is. The Clinton people are conceding that the more time spent with both senators airing their messages, the worse it is for their candidate. The general election race might go on for eight months; wouldn't it be best to have a nominee who wears well?
Well, the Primary calendar after Feb 5th is a slower haul with alot of time for Obama's message to sink in. Again, per the Stump
First, Obama isn't playing for a win on Tuesday. Just something that approximates a stalemate. (I'd say that means carrying 8-10 states and 45 percent of the delegates up for grabs.) The old conventional wisdom was that a long, drawn-out fight benefits Hillary, since all her natural advantages (fundraising ability, name recognition, establishment support, access to free media) will kick in once Obama's momentum fades. But, increasingly, I think a drawn-out fight favors Obama. Not only is he raising money at a phenomenal clip ($32 milion in one frickin' month!), but Clinton-fatigue is starting to take its toll. (Such is the nature of "fatigue" that it only gets worse over time.) Conversely, people seem to like Obama more the more they see him.
And people are definitely seeing Obama: You Must See at this Beauty from Boise. I didn't know we had that many Dem's in Boise...
And this afternoon, 20,000+ in Minnesota and tonight, 70,000+ in St. Louis. Tomorrow, Michelle fills the Pauley Pavilion on UCLA's campus. But Feb 5th is close and a tie is certainly within reach. The polls that were +15 and +20 have narrowed and Obama now has a more favorable circuit upcoming.
The other thing to keep in mind is that, if Obama can just survive February 5, then he's back to a schedule that's perfectly manageable for someone with so much money and such a large organization. There's not a day on the primary calendar between Tuesday and the convention that has more than four contests scheduled. Even on March 4, which the Post says could be a decisive day, Ohio and Texas are really the only two games in town. (Vermont and Rhode Island also vote that day, but, you know, they're Vermont and Rhode Island.) And there are two weeks between March 4 and the previous primary day. Since, as MacGillis and Kornblut point out, Obama tends to do better the more time he can focus on a specific state, I see this slightly benefiting him.
And best of all, should things still be unsettled by March, there is a lifetime in Pennsylvania to finish this puppy off...
Pennsylvania, on April 22, is the last big state to vote, with 158 pledged delegates. It also comes more than a month after the previous primary, in Mississippi, on March 11.
And so, if the two Democrats are still alive then, Pennsylvania becomes Iowa, on steroids. The campaigns and the media all decamp to Harrisburg. Clinton and Obama develop a keen interest in the concerns of the Amish. Michael Nutter becomes a major national figure.
Advantage Obama as he can do a town hall/stadium circuit for a month long enough that every resident of Pennsylvania will have a chance to see him and go with him. Hillary's advantages don't wear well past Feb 5th, considering Obama's recent fundraising strength.
Prediction, if Obama is better than 60/40 split to Hillary on Feb 5th, he wins this one in the Long Haul. His campaign won't rest and his supporters won't give up.
And if he is within 55/45 as most polls suggest, then he has the clear advantage moving forward. This is a likely scenario if you split the remaining undecides in Gallup Evenly between Obama and Hillary.
Now, to relax everyone further, I present, Your Moment of Zen
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