Global Strategy Group (D) for Bill Foster (PDF). 2/21-24. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (2/6-10 results)
Foster (D) 45 (43)
Oberweis (R) 41 (45)
We're still within the MoE, so the race is a statistical dead heat, but the trends are going in the right direction -- a six-point swing toward Foster.
This is a March 8 special election to replace former speaker Dennis Hastert, and winning the race in this R+5 district would be not just an embarrassment for congressional Republicans, but also the first victory in what has become a proxy battle between McCain and Obama. McCain just did a fundraiser for Oberweis, and Obama has cut an ad for Foster (which still hasn't aired).
One other point -- the fact that Obama has gotten involved in this race is a sign that regardless of Obama's lofty rhetoric about working together blah blah blah, he will be a partisan and help Democrats get elected whenever necessary. That had always been a concern of mine, but no longer.
Obama clearly realizes the more Democrats he has backing him up in Congress, the better his chances to effect true change in this nation.