Romney's out. So what does that mean for the Democrats?

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Thursday February 07, 2008 · 8:08 PM PST

2008/02/07 · 20:08

As we all know by now, Willard "Mitt" Romney dropped out of the presidential race today because he wanted to make sure the leading Republican got a clear shot at keeping the White House in the Republicans' hands and not the terrorist dupes who are working hard to win it back. Obviously Willard's dropping out is going to have an effect on the Republican race, effectively making John McCain the Republican nominee, but will his effect have any effect on the Democratic race?

I think it probably will. One thing that's hard to keep in mind while reading sites like the Daily Kos is that there are lots of voters who, while they'd prefer a Democrat, they might be persuaded to vote for a Republican. The Republican who has the most appeal to voters who don't mind reaching across the party line is John McCain. A number of Democrats even see McCain as a possibility worth considering. I'll admit that in 2000, I actually thought of McCain as such. No longer do I, but plenty of Democrats do.

Plenty of independents do, too—and that's where it gets interesting. During the primaries and caucuses that fell over the past month, the open contests drew plenty of independents. By and large, the independents went either for Senator McCain or for Senator Obama. Many of them likely felt that either would be a decent president, and they simply voted their choice.

So it stands to reason that in future open primaries and caucuses, independent voters who want to have an actual say in the selection process will naturally gravitate toward the currently unsettled Democratic contest, and will benefit Barack Obama. While this probably won't result in pushing Obama high enough to shut Clinton out in the delegate race, it'll certainly help him in the overall count.

States with upcoming primaries and caucuses that are open are:

Guam
Hawaii
Indiana
Louisiana
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Ohio
Texas
Vermont
Virgin Islands
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Would-be McCain voters could give Obama an edge in these states, and help push him into more of a clear lead in the delegate race. Texas and Ohio are particularly heartening contests for Obama supporters, if my theory plays out.

With the Republican contest effectively over and with McCain likely to start running to the right in order to take a stab at Republican Party unity, it's possible that Obama could stitch up a significant lead thanks to independents in these states—maybe enough of a lead to embarrass superdelegates into standing with the candidate who won the most pledged delegates. Dare to dream...

Poll
74 votes Show Results
Independents will...

break for Obama

break for Clinton

split between Obama and Clinton

split between Obama and McCain

split between Obama, Clinton and McCain

be more likely to just stay home

74 votes Vote Now!
Independents will...

break for Obama

53 votes

break for Clinton

5%

4 votes

split between Obama and Clinton

4%

3 votes

split between Obama and McCain

10 votes

split between Obama, Clinton and McCain

3%

2 votes

be more likely to just stay home

3%

2 votes

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