I wanted to revise and repost this diary from yesterday for folks who will be watching the election returns. There were Obama supporters at a lot of the main intersections in Jackson today. The excitement was still in the air after the Obama speech last night at JSU. We had an overflow estimated crowd of 10,000 folks of all ages, races and economic status. One of the many media people I talked to noted that he had not seen a crowd as "stoked" as this one on the whole tour. Songs were sang and chants were cheered. You would have thought a football game was about to occur. It was deafening at times before Obama even entered the building. Below is the diary from yesterday with plenty of edits and additions and subtractions to make it more useful.
My homestate is on the map! While it may pass to be a short-lived week in the bright lights of the national scene, it has added an extra layer of intrigue to the already engaging Democratic nominee race. What I have laid out below is an explanation of how the delegates are awarded in Mississippi, a layout of the electoral terrain in each district, and a poor man's pundit's predictions. Enjoy and GOTV.
One of the great mysteries to the average voter is the way delegates are awarded after a primary has occurred. The popular vote and the delegate vote don't always match proportionately, why is this? Let's look and see how Mississippi's 33 Democratic pledged delegates are awarded. Also Mississippi is an open primary.
Let's get some terminology down first.
Pledged Delegate: A delegate awarded based on the results of the Primary. Mississippi has 33.
Super Delegate: A delegate awarded to a state, but assigned to a party leader from that state. Big Wigs like Senator's, state party chairmen, Congressmen, etc... Mississippi has 7.
Delegates: The sum of both the pledged delegates and the super delegates. Mississippi has 40.
The state of Mississippi has 33 total pledged delegates attached to the results of Tuesday's primary. That total does not reflect the 7 super-delegates awarded to Mississippi. Of the seven, three have pledged for Senator Obama, three have remained undecided, and one delegate is yet to be determined. Mississippi has a total of 40 delegates but only 33 are tied to the results of Tuesday's primary.
The Democrats split the pledged delegate count (33) up in a 65-35 proportion, with 65% to be awarded at the congressional district level, while 35% will be split proportionately based on the overall statewide popular vote. Hang with me now, 35% of the total pledged delegates (33) is 11. These 11 delegates are first split into one group of 7 and one group of 4. The first 7 are considered "at-large", meaning they are awarded proportionately based on the overall popular vote. They will split 4-3, unless a candidate gets 64%+ of the popular vote statewide. The remaining 4 are called "pledged party leaders and elected officials - PLEO" -- they are also divided based on the overall popular vote, just seperately from the other 7. To move off the 2-2 split a candidate has to get 63% of the popular vote. So say Obama gets 65% of the statewide popular vote, he would get 65% of 7, which is 5 (after rounding up) plus 65% of 4 which is 3. Hillary would get 3 total in this scenario.
Hat Tip to Terjeanderson for clarification on the 7-4 piece of this puzzle.
So with the 11 divided by the statewide popular vote, and the 22 divided by the popular vote within each Congressional district, we reach our total of 33 pledged delegates. Mississippi is around 37-38% AA. African-Americans make up somewhere around 70% of the registered Democratic vote.
The remaining 65% of the pledged delegates are divided up by Congressional District. All districts have 5, except for MS-2 which has 7, for a total of 22. The reason MS-2 has 7, is that the Democratic Party rewards districts that are heavily Dem. The delegates are awarded proportionately within each district based on the popular vote for that district. Say in MS-3 Obama gets 61% of the vote, he would win 3 pledged delegates to Senator Clinton's 2.
So with the 11 divided by the statewide popular vote, and the 22 divided by the popular vote within each Congressional district, we reach our total of 33 pledged delegates. Mississippi is around 37-38% AA. African-Americans make up somewhere around 70% of the registered Democratic vote.
Congressional Districts of Mississippi
image courtesy of Nationalatlas.gov
District Level Synopsis
Note: This diary is one Mississippian's opinion
MS-1: MS-1 runs from the Mississippi side of Memphis in the NW over to Tupelo in the East, and down to Columbus in the SE. This was Roger Wicker's district, a reasonable shot for a seat gain in the House in this district in the fall. Travis Childers and Steve Holland are both deserving candidates for Wicker’s vacated seat. This district is in the heart of the bible belt. Ole Miss lies in this district as well. MS-1 is 26% AA.
MS-2: MS-2 is the delta of Mississippi. This district is home of Bennie Thompson. As you would expect the Mississippi districts are gerrymandered to put as much of the AA vote in one district as possible. MS-2 is Greenville, Clarksdale, and Greenwood down to Vicksburg. Part of the city of Jackson is also in this district, which heps keep MS-3 from going Dem. This district is at least 63% AA. This district is the prime farmland, where the aristocracy had their plantations on the richest, most fertile soil in the south. Time has often moved at its own pace in the delta, and to an outsider, the delta is seemingly oblivious to the movements of the rest of the state. If you want to see a society with the very wealthy, a modest to small middle class and rampant poverty, this district is for you. However the delta has given us greatness in many ways in the arts, especially being the birthplace of the blues. There is a duality to the southern thing, and nowhere is it more on display than in MS-2. MS-2 is 63% AA.
MS-3: MS-3 is the central part of the state minus the delta region sliced off by the curiously carved MS-2. MS-3 is represented by Chip Pickering, a Republican. Part of Jackson, the state capital lies in MS-3. Jackson by far is the most populous city in MS, and is approximately 65-70% AA. Starkville, home of MSU, will have a large Dem vote. Meridian also lies in this district. JSU lies in this district. MS-3 is 33% AA.
MS-4: MS-4 is the coast of Mississippi, including the most southern counties in the state. The district of Brett Favre has a different set of interests than the more mainstream Dem views of their other Mississippi brethren, due to the delayed recovery process from Katrina. Hurricane Katrina still casts a long shadow across most areas of the coast. In a lot of places the current GOP admin is more interested in rebuilding commerce for the fat cats than getting Mississippi families back on their feet. MS-4 is represented by Gene Taylor in Congress. The cities and towns of MS-4 include Biloxi, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Hattiesburg, and Laurel. USM is located in this district. MS-4 is a 22% AA district.
Hat Tip to Tejanderson for the AA percentages fo each district
By Congressional District
MS-1: 5
MS-2: 7
MS-3: 5
MS-4: 5
11 delegates split proportionately based on popular vote
Total: 33
Any guesses to where this is headed?
Fearless Prognostications:
I am going:
Popular:
Obama 62%
Clinton 38%
Based on Congressional District
MS-1 3/2 Clinton
MS-2 5/2 Obama
MS-3 3/2 Obama
MS-4 3/2 Obama
Based on Popular Vote:
Obama 6
Clinton 5
Total:
Obama 19
Clinton 14
And yes I know 5/2 requires over 64% of the vote for Obama, but I think that is possible in the Delta. I think MS-3 is 3/2 Obama lock and not moving off it. The swing will come from MS-1 (3/2 Obama or 3/2 Clinton), MS-2 (6/1 Obama or 5/2 Obama), and MS-4 (3/2 Obama or 3/2 Clinton). The pop will either come to 6-5 or 7-4. So that leaves it in a range between 18-15 Obama and 21-12 Obama. Remember this is MY best guess, and nothing more.
Sorry if you read most of this yesterday, but I thougt a lot might enjoy it today.
