Michigan Revote Likely... Sen. Nelson Caves on Revote Florida

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Friday March 14, 2008 · 12:08 PM PDT

2008/03/14 · 12:08

Florida Revote? Think again... the arguement to seat delegates with Half Votes similar to the Republicans has 3 major victories included for Barack Obama, Taking away Hillary's last best hope to close gaps on multiple fronts.

Net 19 Pledged Delegates For Obama

This arguement has been ceeded by Sen. Bill Nelson, the defacto Florida Hillary Supporter.

Nelson said he spoke Friday with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the Senate floor about the plight of Florida and Michigan, the two states stripped of delegates because their early primaries violated national rules.

"Both of them said, `You have to seat Florida and Michigan.' Now, of course, the devil is in the details,'" Nelson said.

The Nelson plan still gives Clinton the edge, based on her 17 percentage-point win in January. But instead of gaining 38 delegates, Clinton's victory margin in Florida would be reduced to 19.

That's a Net Gain of 19 Delegates for Obama if you consider the prospects of a true Revote...

2. Closing Potential Popular Vote Gap

What's more important to consider if how this may affect the Popular Vote Tally, the all important measure currently the only chance for Hillary to close the "gap"... if Florida is not given a Revote, then any arguement suggesting that the Florida vote be counted in the Total Popular Vote tally would need to likewise, at the least, follow a 50% haircut, if not all together be taken out of consideration, as it currently is. The fact is Obama never campaigned in Florida, nor did he activate the Ground Organizers which are key in his victories thus far this year.

The Florida Popular Vote was:

Clinton: 857,208
Obama; 569,041
Margin: 288,167

The Hillary campaign will only be able to legitimately claim either 1/2 that number, in accordance with the delegate penalty, 144,083, or worse yet, None. Because the vote was rather uncontested and therefor not real, a compromise in the delegate apportionment removes her chance to actually claim a popular vote victory there and close the gap, thereby another victory for Obama.

3. Keeping Florida Relevant and Involved without investing Millions to Campaign

And in closing, this is a victory for Democrats because now the Florida Delegation will be seated, and some portion of the vote will be counted, as it's supposed to be, through the proportionality of the pledged delegates. To that end, Hillary will have closed the Pledged Gap by 19 Delegates, a victory, but minor in comparison to the 38 she had available.

And seeing how Michigan may actually hold a true revote soon, a state that Obama is more inclined to win, this whole Revote matter may soon turn into yet another Hillary Liability...

Update: Michigan Moving quickly

At this time, we are focusing on the possibility of a state-run primary in early June, which would not use any state funding. This option would require the passage of legislation by the state legislature, and we look forward to working with the members of the legislature in the coming days to see if this option can be made a reality.

Obama / Clinton Michigan:

Obama 41%, Clinton 41%, Not Sure 18%

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