The TV news presenters are already heralding Saddam's capture as the beginning of a new dawn of peace and prosperity for Iraq. That's no surprise from a group unused to the discipline of strategic political analysis. But while it is surely a victory for justice to see Saddam captured and brought to account, it is naive to expect more stability and support for American policy as a result. Here are four reasons that today's optimists will soon be revising their expectations.
1. Iraqis will no longer fear the return of Saddam. Wait, isn't this the main reason support will increase for Americans in Iraq? Well, no. The truth is, we're never going to have enthusiastic support from most Iraqis. A lot of stateside pundits want to believe in a vast, silent majority of Iraqis who are thrilled to have us there. In reality, we have had grudging support from a lot of Iraqis who have seen us as the lesser of two evils. Now that they are no longer worried about the Saddam, many will no longer see much reason to tolerate an American occupation and administration. We may, moreover, see not just a collapse of support for the American occupation of Iraq, but an explosion of sympathy and assistance for the Baathist resistance, because ordinary Iraqis will no longer fear that a Baathist victory would return Saddam to power.
2. Iraq's social and political factions have lost a common enemy. On TV this morning you can see small but enthusiastic demonstrations of Kurds, Shiites, and Communists, among others. Other than successes of the national soccer team, this is about the only thing they are likely celebrate together. Up until now, the tensions between these groups have been partially obscured. Now, Iraq's factions will increasingly focus on their clashing interests and demands.
3. Iraqis will be increasingly suspicious of our motives for staying on. There is already a pretty common belief in Iraq that we are just there to grab oil. Now that Saddam is in our hands, many Iraqis will find it increasingly hard to credit any other motive, and this will increase support for resistance to the occupation.
4. Iraqi Baathist insurgents will be fighting more directly to advance their own ambitions. Until now, any Baathist resistance leader had to know that success in driving out the Americans and returning the Baathists to power (not a likely scenario, but the one they were fighting for) would put Saddam back in charge. They surely saw Saddam's return as a better deal than the American occupation, in which they are frozen out of power and privilege. But now every Baathist rebel leader can believe that a better deal yet is available to him -- a Baathist restoration where he gets to be the one in charge. Now Baathists rebels will believe they have good reason to press attacks with even more vigor and resolve.
