May 20, Barack Obama will declare pledged delegate victory. Oregon'll be a fun results tracker diary.
3 weeks ago, Jed grasped the importance of perception of whether it's voters or supers putting Obama over the top.
One week left. Here are my topline conclusions about what it will take (nitty gritty details spelled out below):
47 pledged delegates from KY/OR Tuesday. 99% lock.
4 add-ons this weekend. CO(1), CA(2) a formality. KS(1) expected.
49 supers or Edwards pledged not from MI/FL. Avg 7 per day for the next 7 days.
7 Edwards-committed pledged switchers. Note: Count toward the 49 if from Iowa, NH or SC, otherwise they're extra.
Thu May 15 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Fri May 16 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Sat May 17 - 9 supers or E-pledged (incl. CO add-on Frederico Pena, KS add-on)
Sun May 18 - 9 supers or E-pledged (incl. 2 California add-ons)
Mon May 19 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Tue May 20 - 7 supers or E-pledged; Obama wins 47 pledged delegates
Wed May 21 - 7 supers or E-pledged
If this happens:
Big Meaning #1: Obviously over 1627, Obama is locked into 2025 with the 6 Pelosi Club and a guaranteed 32 from PR(15), MT(9) and SD(8). No further supers, Edwards pledged or add-ons needed except for cushioning the lead. Drop the balloons.
Big Meaning #2: If Obama also gets 7 more Edwards pledged dels from anywhere, Obama is locked (with his guaranteed 32) into at least a clinching 1783.5 pledged delegate majority under all permutations and deals using the dishonest 2209. Pelosi Club triggered, then balloons get dropped when Obama gets 120 endorsements from a varied pool of 309 supers, add-ons and uncommitted pledged.
That would be a big deal, because it dismantles one more dishonest route to taking an earned victory away from Obama. Hence, the title of the diary.
And: I am still not counting the Maryland pledged flipper.
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Update 1: We might hit the Edwards number fast. Peraspera reports two of Edwards' pledged delegates in SC were just on CNN confirming a switch to Obama. John Moylon and Lauren Bilton. Moylon apparently referred to 6 others he's spoken with who were also switching. Here's a full list of names.
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Tackling pledged delegates first, Obama will have 1646.5 plus any of the 15 Edwards named delegates who had not officially declared for Obama as of Wednesday night.
Florida-Michigan. There are a bunch of scenarios where deals are made with Florida and Michigan. But if no deal is made, and worst-case Michigan and Florida are seated in full as is, here's where we will stand:
Pledged Delegate Majority: 1783.5
Obama will have 1645.5 on his own (including 47 May 20).
Obama has 67 named Florida pledged in total.
Obama has 31 named Michigan pledged at the CD level.
Obama has 1 named Edwards pledged convert.
Total 1744.5, Needed 39.
He can get at least 32 from:
June 1: A floor of 15 in Puerto Rico even with an abysmal showing.
June 3: An almost locked-in 17 from Montana and South Dakota.
And then a mere 7 more from the following pool of at least 55:
Anytime: Edwards' 33 remaining named pledged delegates (3 more NH, 8 in SC, 4 Iowa CD-level, 13 Florida CD-level, 5 Michigan CD-level)
June 1: Outperforming 15 in Puerto Rico (almost guaranteed)
June 14: Iowa's 3 uncommitted statewide pledged delegates
June 14: Michigan's 19 uncommitted statewide delegates
7 out of 55? We could and likely will learn about 7 of Edwards' 33 pledged switching to Obama this week.
That's the big conclusion from the preceding math exercise: If we get 7 more Edwards' pledged confirmations this week (beyond Joshua Denton), there is simply no permutation where Obama isn't locked into the majority of pledged delegates. (And that doesn't include the Maryland loser).
7 more pledged Edwards confirmations then animates the following discussion:
With every single pledged delegate majority clinched, we can count the 6 Pelosi Club.
FL/MI 2209 Scenario:
1783.5 pledged (the premise we just went through)
287.5 supers
8 supers in FL/MI
4 add-ons this week
6 Pelosi Club
= 2089 total, 120 needed
120 from a pool of 309:
Anytime: 217 regular superdelegates
Anytime: 26 leftover named, once Edwards-committed pledged delegates
Scheduled: 44 add-on superdelegates
June 1: Overperformance of 15 pledged in Puerto Rico
June 14: 22 uncommitted statewide pledged delegates in Iowa and Michigan
Existing 2025 Scenario:
1645.5 pledged (add 47 May 20 and ignore the Maryland guy)
1 NH Edwards pledged delegate
0-7 non-FL/MI Edwards pledged delegates
287.5 supers
4 add-ons this week
6 Pelosi Club
=1944-1951 total, 74-81 needed (depending on how many of our premise were from Iowa, NH or SC)
74-81 will be reduced a minimum of 32 from PR, MT and SD discussed above.
That leaves 42-49 from a pool of 240-247:
Anytime: 189 regular superdelegates
Anytime: 8-15 leftover named, once Edwards-committed non-FL/MI pledged delegates
Scheduled: 40 add-on superdelegates
June 1: Overperformance of 15 pledged in Puerto Rico
June 14: 3 uncommitted statewide pledged delegates in Iowa
Assumptions:
- This weekend, Obama-endorser Frederico Pena wins his unopposed add-on bid in Colorado, Obama wins the Kansas caucus add-on, and gets the promised 2 of 5 CA add-ons.
- Clinton wins Kentucky 34-17, Obama wins Oregon 30-22, netting Obama 47 pledged delegates May 20.
- Beyond NH's Joshua Denton, Obama gets 7 named, known Edwards pledged delegates to publicly switch support this week.
- Obama cannot do worse than 15 of 55 pledged in PR June 1, and is locked into 17 pledged in MT/SD June 3.
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Phonebank, canvass, and register the fall avalanche. And keep one eye on these benchmarks all week. The way the math/endgame comes together and is presented matters to the required pivot toward party unity.
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[Oh, and I'm leaving corporate life to start an alpaca farm. I can imagine being so happy, not worrying about anything, just walking out the front door into my incredibly satisfying Alpaca Lifestyle. Not really, but from the Aloha State to the free state of Maryland, hi, I'm Montel Williams here to tell you what a group of totally fucking awesome guys the nation's drug companies are because of a free sample gimmick. Who needs health care, we got this gimmick bus!]