Hillary says North Carolina "Game Changer"; CW Now a Must-Win State

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Friday May 02, 2008 · 11:12 AM PDT

2008/05/02 · 11:12

Hillary Clinton was clear on the importance of North Carolina on Friday.

“This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country – probably even a lot of the world is looking to see what North Carolina decides.”

Similarly, Marc Ambinder asks if Hillary needs to win North Carolina in order to actually disrupt the flow of Superdelegates.

It may well be that an upset victory is the only way to unblinker the superdelegates. It might not serve the principles of justice, but it is what it is.

Last night on Hardball, Andrea Mitchell argued that in order for the landscape to actually shift, Hillary needs to beat Obama in North Carolina. North Carolina is Obama's turf, and if Hillary is to truly unseat Obama, she needs to win on his Ground. He had to win PA to knock her out, she has to win NC to change the race, er, Game.

Meanwhile, the CW is forming slowly

First Noam

If Hillary does no better than a narrow victory in Indiana and Obama wins comfortably in North Carolina (6 points or more?), I don't see any impetus for superdelegates to rethink the race, and it would basically be impossible for Hillary to win. If, on the other hand, if Hillary wins big in Indiana (say, 8 or more) and Obama does no better than squeak out a victory in North Carolina (say, 2 or fewer), with attrition among African Americans, highly-educated voters, and young people, then I do see some impetus for rethinking.

And First Read

*** 96 hours to go: Indiana and North Carolina are the two biggest states left on the calendar. And because of the fairly large and swing nature of Indiana and North Carolina, it's fair to say that if either candidate sweeps the contests, it's going to be a major turning point in the campaign. An Obama sweep, and Clinton might not last the week. A Clinton sweep, meanwhile, and a contested convention is guaranteed. A split decision, and the trickle to Obama by uncommitted superdelegates probably continues and Obama keeps up his successful limp toward the finish line.

*** The over and under: So with this in mind, let's have some Vegas-like fun. If Vegas were charged with setting the line, our best guess is that Clinton would be giving three points in Indiana, while Obama would giving five points in North Carolina. This doesn't mean this is the prediction for either state we're making, this is simply the margin of victory projection that we think would invite an even amount of money being bet on each candidate.

In Closing, if anything is to stop the Drip, Drip, Drip, It'll be a Hillary Surprise in North Carolina.

Otherwise with so few contests to go and such a large margin of Supers to overcome 2-1+, it's over. The supers are headed down a road and no poll at this point will change the eventual outcome. Hillary's only chance is a win in N.C.

Poll
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is North Carolina a True Must Win for Hillary

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is North Carolina a True Must Win for Hillary

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No

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