Here is a semi-monthly update to prices taken from a couple proposition exchanges. The price listed here prices of the last trade. In parentheses are the last trade prices from two weeks ago. If no previous price is given, it simply means I did not bother to cover it two weeks ago.
Dean is sliding. He's now only even money at most places. Clark is roaring, Gephardt is tanking, and Bush has mixed results -- mostly flat in the general proposition that he wins and gaining and losing in different states. You will notice some definite irregularities on some propositions where buying and selling has dried up, such as at the IEM where Gephardt has 3 to 1 odds of beating Bush if he were to gain the nomination.
These exchanges are like stock markets for future events. A higher number means more likely to happen. For example, at Tradesports Dean to win the New Hampshire primary is trading at 64.0, meaning that you can buy the proposition for $6.40, and if Dean wins, you will get paid $10.00 (net gain of $3.60 -- $10.00 minus $6.40). In all markets, President Bush has a solid lead (at some places as good as a 2 to 5 bet), so there is much to be gained if you think Dean will win.
Foresight Exchange
- Bush Remains President: 63 (64)
- Dean Elected: 27 (30)
- Clark Elected: 10
- Democrat Elected by 2008: 75 (73)
Iowa Electronic Markets (these are are per dollar, so 0.665 is the same as 6.65 at Tradesports)
- Democratic Nominee:
- Clark: 0.210 (0.115)
- Dean: 0.500 (0.665)
- Gephardt: 0.013 (0.120)
- Kerry: 0.153
- Presidential Election: (these include the likelihood of the candidate winning the primary, so that is why they are so low).
- Clark Beats Bush: 0.090 (0.061)
- Bush Beats Clark: 0.120 (0.055)
- Dean Beats Bush: 0.200 (0.300)
- Bush Beats Dean: 0.225 (0.343)
- Gephardt Beats Bush: 0.010 (0.068)
- Bush Beats Gephardt: 0.003 (0.048)
- Kerry Beats Bush: 0.080
- Bush Beats Kerry: 0.080
Tradesports.com
- Democratic Nominee:
- Dean 48.0 (65.2)
- Edwards 8.2
- Gephardt 2.5 (8.9)
- Kerry 19.4
- Iowa Caucus:
- Dean 43.0 (65.0)
- Edwards 7.9
- Gephardt 19.0 (41.0)
- Kerry 34.9
- New Hampshire Primary:
- Dean 64.0 (90.0)
- Kerry 14.0
- Other incl Clark 15.0
- Presidential Election Winner:
- Presidential Election by State (these are Bush Win propositions):
- Alamaba 95.0 (95.0)
- Alaska 94.0 (93.0)
- Arizona 82.5 (85.0)
- Arkansas 72.0 (68.0)
- California 27.0 (21.0)
- Colorado 85.5 (85.0)
- Connecticut 27.5 (32.0)
- Delaware 41.0 (53.0)
- Florida 69.0 (69.0)
- Georgia 92.0 (95.0)
- Hawaii 13.0 (13.0)
- Idaho 95.0 (95.0)
- Illinois 43.0 (45.0)
- Indiana 87.5 (85.0)
- Iowa 72.0 (72.0)
- Kansas 91.5 (92.0)
- Kentucky 93.0 (93.0)
- Maine 47.5 (50.0)
- Maryland 17.5 (22.0)
- Massachusetts 12.5 (17.0)
- Michigan 57.0 (57.0)
- Minnesota 58.0 (52.0)
- Mississippi 96.0 (96.0)
- Missouri 73.0 (72.0)
- Montana 95.0 (95.0)
- Nebraska 95.0 (95.0)
- Nevada 77.5 (82.0)
- New Hampshire 63.0 (70.0)
- New Jersey 27.5 (25.0)
- New Mexico 71.5 (73.0)
- New York 28.0 (22.0)
- North Carolina 91.0 (94.0)
- North Dakota 95.0 (95.0)
- Ohio 78.0 (79.0)
- Oklahoma 95.5 (95.0)
- Oregon 62.0 (63.0)
- Pennsylvania 63.0 (62.0)
- Rhode Island 12.5 (17.0)
- South Carolina 95.0 (95.0)
- South Dakota 95.0 (95.0)
- Tennessee 87.0 (90.0)
- Texas 98.0 (98.0)
- Utah 95.0 (95.0)
- Vermont 9.5 (13.0)
- Virginia 92.5 (94.0)
- Washington 48.0 (53.0)
- West Virginia 62.5 (63.0)
- Wisconsin 62.0 (61.0)
- Wyoming 95.0 (95.0)
