It's the 20th of May, 2008. The Great State of Oregon will officially, historically give Barack Obama the pledged delegate majority, and I know that means Oregon matters.
I dedicate this to my friend big Dave O., a field organizer who has worked his mind and body into gruel for Barack Obama starting over a year ago in NH, then SC, then Maine, then Ohio, then PA, and finally home in MT. That guy is a god damn warrior and nothing would make me happier than seeing his dedication and excellence rewarded when that day comes. (Also one of the biggest field heroes in Jon Tester's race, btw.)
Dave's not a softie like me, but he shared one short, simple moment from this campaign saga that caught him good. It was South Carolina, and Dave had a couple rural upstate counties near Spartanburg. After the polls closed, he and one of his volunteers, a 70-something y.o. black man, quietly watched the returns come in. They stood silently together a long time. With glistening eyes and stunned wonderment the man finally turns to Dave, this young, white, good-hearted man from rural Montana. Looks Dave in the eyes and says simply, "I never thought I would see this."
Oregon, take us home baby.
UPDATE #26, 5:25PM PACIFIC: Obama got the PLEO split as hoped for, with 58.85% statewide. Still a small handful of ballots out in CD-4 but there's nowhere near enough votes to change the statewide total by 0.5%. ObamaManiac2008 appears to have nailed it, predicting every pledged delegate split accurately, the total 31-21. This will creep up by a tiny amount, but Obama won by 108,458 votes in Oregon, on 70.73% of possible turnout. 612,998 votes recorded. Obama wins by 17.7%, also meaning ObamaManiac2008 came closest with a 18.3% prediction.
UPDATE #25, 6:19AM PACIFIC: All right, I am going to bed. There hasn't been a new number in at least an hour and a half.
Obama needs 58.34% statewide for a 4-2 PLEO split. He is at exactly 58.34% as we sit here basically completely stalled until the Oregon election offices can finish the counting at some point over the next few days. This is really the only controversial number left, whether it will be 30-22 or 31-21. I'm feeling very confident of 6-3 in CD-3. It may seem like just a little, less than 1%, but we are at the stage where a tenth of a percent change is big movement, and hundredths of a percent change are the norm.
Multnomah (see update #23) and Lane still have a decent number of ballots out. Obama is winning those splits by 25-30% margins, which should push the statewide 16.68% split in the right direction even by a few hundredths of a percent. Clackamas is also expecting more ballots, and Obama is only winning that county by 7.84%, so 4-2 split is not assured.
UPDATE #24, 4:42AM PACIFIC: Might be a good time to make a point about Montana and South Dakota. Anyone talking about Clinton winning these states should take a good look at CD-2 in Oregon, the rural expanse in the eastern 2/3 of the state. Obama is winning this district by 10.26% right now. And he is going to easily carry a 3-2 delegate split in Eastern Montana as well as a 5-4 split in South Dakota (Western Montana is going to go even bigger 3-2 for Obama due to Missoula alone).
Now, there was some disagreement over whether Obama or Clinton would win CD-2 in Oregon. People saw rural, older voters and thought, this is Clinton's base. But the reality is, as Appalachia is teaching us, that cultural geography is huge. Isolated enclaves of steep-valleyed Appalachia have a hard time absorbing change. The epicenter is Kentucky-05, the only district anywhere in the entire nominating process that Barack Obama won't have been viable to get even 1 delegate (I was wrong about that, by the way, I didn't think that would happen anywhere). But the physical geography of the west is wide open spaces, the cultural overlay key is you can do as you please, as long as you don't tread on my freedoms. It's a different orientation. And on the cultural issue, a huge trump card is Hillary Clinton is THE face of gun control in the northern prairie states and the Mountain West and has been for over a decade. I cannot emphasize this enough. Guns are a cultural norm, and it's not a partisan thing, it's a cultural thing.
Now, it's not solely guns, that's too facile. But where Clinton's known entity helps her in culturally suspicious Appalachia, it hurts her in the west where the first-cut suspicion is: what freedoms might you take away from me? So keep that in mind for June 3, where the 9-7 and 8-7 splits are basically pre-ordained.
UPDATE #23, 3:56AM PACIFIC: Multnomah County is at 59.16% Dem ballots returned. That's well lower than the statewide number that we're sitting on of 64.72%, and although I don't know the track record, it would seem counterintuitive that in a closed Dem primary Portland would underperform the state in a highly charged election. If Multnomah winds up at 68% overall turnout, then about 20,000 ballots are still expected. Obama's winning this county by a 29.5% margin, so we could see another 5,900 vote gain out of this county alone.
UPDATE #22, 3:37AM PACIFIC: Still here, by the way. Poker player sleep schedule, bedtime is still a ways off. Sitting on 31-21 overall. ObamaManiac2008 is on pace for nailing the delegate split, but the PLEO split is still fragile. I think Obama will win by over 100K raw votes when all is said and done, based on the trajectory.
Kos is actually closest on the margin, only 1.3% off.
Me: 20.8% (I tried to corner the optimism market)
PsiFighter: 19.4%
ObamaManiac: 18.3%
Actual, current: 16.7%
Kos: 15.4%
Giordano: 15.2%
Bowers: 14%
Poblano: 13.8%
NMLib: 10.8% (cornering the pessimism market)
UPDATE #21, 3:00AM PACIFIC: Huge boost in Lane County, that puts Obama over the PLEO mark for 4-2 at least for the moment, at 58.36% statewide. Here's to Oregon University and Oregon State. Lane County turnout has been amazing. With "77%" of precincts reporting (I think over 90% of the votes in the county are counted), Lane is at 73.92% of eligible Dem ballots returned. And Benton County, where Oregon State is, was Obama's best percentage county, winning by 39 points.
UPDATE #20, 2:37AM PACIFIC: The Portland paper is well behind in the counting. But it did get some Grant County hours ago. So I added Obama's 402-273 lead there.
Unequivocally and enthusiastically, I support mail-in balloting as the current best method to drive high voter turnout. Already, we are sitting on 63.80% of registered Dems having returned their ballots. That's far higher than PA, which set the high-water mark this election season for a closed primary at 55%. And still ballots are left to be counted. But the idea that mail-in votes make the counting faster is obviously silly. Just compare and contrast with Kentucky.
UPDATE #19, 1:56AM PACIFIC: Will Grant County ever report? Bueller? Bueller? Meanwhile, Al Giordano drops this in an update over at The Field:
Updates: The Field can now confirm two facts:
- Senator Clinton has made direct and private overtures to Senator Obama regarding the path ahead.
- Keep your eye on superdelegates, particularly in California, but also elsewhere, that had committed to Senator Clinton, but who are gathering together by the exit sign.
You can take both of those tips to the bank.
UPDATE #18, 1:43AM PACIFIC: Within 0.07% of PLEO flip, still betting against, with 63.25% turnout reported. Also, clearly more than half of Clackamas Dems are in CD-3 than CD-5. When I added a tracker of turnout by CD, and allocated half of Clackamas' Dem ballots to each of CD-3 and CD-5, CD-3 was at around 62% turnout, in spite of the fact that almost all of Multnomah is already in. Meanwhile, CD-5 was up over 72%, with the rest of CD-5 in. Now, the final numbers might be that high, and that's what I boldly predicted, so it might not be wildly over 50% of Dem ballots in Clackamas in CD-3. But in terms of watching the 6-3 line in CD-3 it's worth noting.
UPDATE #17, 1:08AM PACIFIC: I don't think that PLEO number's gonna change. That damn poblano might hit the pop vote margin dead on. He predicted 91,168 and we're at 88,523. That's sick. CD-5 is 100% reporting except for whatever portion of Clackamas is in the district might still be out. Regardless of that number, CD-5 is locked into 3-3 split.
UPDATE #16, 12:44AM PACIFIC: This should be a fun week in superdelegates. A couple more counties finish off, including Benton, which Obama won bigger than any other county in the state. 61.17% turnout accounted for. Tantalizingly close, 0.09% from PLEO 4-3. Trickle, trickle, trickle. I am going to get a delicious torta from the snack bar, be back in 15 min. And, since I'm on the West Coast and am a natural night owl, I will finish this off. Oh, and it's funny to see spreadsheet blocks get clicked on by somebody.
UPDATE #15, 12:09AM PACIFIC: 59.80% of Dem ballots returned. The report was 65% had been returned by 5pm today, so that plus the rush hour returns still outstanding. So we need about 43K more to hit the 65% number, plus whatever else came in late today. I really hope this doesn't take all night. If a few numbers weren't so close to flipping one way or the other I'd wrap it up. Hey, Die Hard 2!
UPDATE #14, 11:45PM PACIFIC: 58.89% of eligible Dem ballots returned, probably in the 100K neighborhood of ballots still out there assuming 510K turnout ends up close to 610K. When a county has fully reported I've made it red in text in the spreadsheet.
UPDATE #13, 11:27PM PACIFIC: Now you should be able to see the spreadsheet without logging in. You can see every county, and the percentage each got in each county and district, subject to the Clackamas issue.
UPDATE #12, 11:14PM PACIFIC: A few more from Portland and Marion Co. PLEO 3-3 will go 4-2 with just 0.12% more, which would make ObamaManiac2008 right in every prediction. Halfway between the Maniac and Al Giordano, slightly closer to Maniac, but the PLEO hasn't flipped and it might be hard. I was a little optimistic, it looks like.
Again, an important reminder on CD-3 and CD-5. Clackamas County has a fairly large number of votes, and it's not clear how many are in each district. I am putting it in CD-3, the Portland district, but the Clackamas number is clearly dragging CD-3 down, so 6-3 is probably safer than it looks right now, and CD-5 isn't really affected in terms of delegates.
UPDATE #11, 11PM PACIFIC: Wow, they are slow. 55.71% of eligible Dem ballots in, there are at least another 100K ballots out there.
UPDATE #10, 10:30PM PACIFIC: 54.56% of the eligible Dem ballots returned, we are waiting on the Procrastination Vote.
UPDATE #9, 10:22PM PACIFIC: Numbers seem to be coming in again, here is a link to my spreadsheet published as a google doc if you really want to see the numbers in detail. I think it is supposed to automatically republish with changes saved, but let me know if it doesn't seem to be.
UPDATE #8, 9:47PM PACIFIC: Nothing is happening. 20 minutes with almost no new data. The Oregon Secretary of State site is worthless, the opposite of the NC site. I am drinking Moosehead. Dave says hi. I kind of took him by surprise. This afternoon some donk in the Commerce 10-20NL game offered me even money on the general vs. McCain for 2k, so I'm kinda happy about that gift. Back to thumb-twiddling and waiting.
UPDATE #7, 9:25PM PACIFIC: Refreshing, refreshing, we are officially in a results lull. What we're sitting on is roughly the voting through yesterday now reported. 51.20% of the registered Dems in the state are counted. We know we were past 65% turnout by this afternoon.
UPDATE #6, 9:10PM PACIFIC: Updated with 256,209 to 185,310. Seemingly in a lull, with a few new numbers from Multnomah and Lane.
UPDATE #5, 8:55PM PACIFIC: Updated when the vote was 240,144 to 176,164. If these are the early ballots and the late ballots are most of the ones outstanding, you might think Obama would widen this margin. Also, some CDs seem pretty clear at this point. CD-1 is pretty clearly going 4-3, CD-2 is pretty clearly going 3-2, CD-3 is unclear, but is probably going to go 6-3 when all is said and done, CD-4 is pretty clearly going to be 4-3, and CD-5 is going to need a big Obama late vote push to get out of the 3-3 split. At-large is going to be 7-5, PLEO is going to be close between 3-3 and 4-2.
Also, I am putting every county number into a spreadsheet that spits out a percentage, so when I update the diary and you see the percentages change slightly, that is the output of whatever number of new data from the counties that comes in. I might put in 10 new numbers and the percentage might change .87 in one direction or another.
UPDATE #4, 8:40PM PACIFIC: Updated again, this is with 203,955 to 142,758 as the raw vote.
UPDATE #3, 8:30PM PACIFIC: First hard numbers update.
UPDATE #2, 8:05PM PACIFIC: Obama wins, declared instantly, here come the results...
UPDATE #1, 7:22PM PACIFIC: I just got back, ready for the results, and Obama just started speaking in Iowa. "You have put us in reach of the Democratic nomination for President of the United States of America."
Useful Links:
Oregon Secretary of State
USA Today
CNN Oregon
I'll be updating as fast as I can once the hard numbers start coming in. I hope you'll forgive me for posting slightly early; I'll be in and out a bit before the deadline in Oregon. Here's a teaser... as of yesterday at 3:30pm, these were the turnout numbers by CD (link is pdf):
CD-1 had 75,899 of 143,294 Dem ballots returned, or 52.97%.
CD-2 had 66,530 of 128,324 Dem ballots returned, or 51.85%.
CD-4 had 108,092 of 195,180 Dem ballots returned, or 55.38%. (52,280 of those ballots were in Lane).
CD-3 and CD-5 share Clackamas county and I don't know what the split is. 203,648 of 399,920 Dem ballots returned, or 50.92% combined.
Overall, 454,169 of 866,718 Dem ballots had been returned by 3:30pm Monday afternoon, or 52.40%. PA was the closed primary record at 55%, for reference.
(If anyone has a link to an updated pdf somewhere, please post it in the comments.)
__________________________________________________
Here is where we stand in pledged and superdelegates as of the afternoon of Tuesday May 20:
Current pledged delegates: 1610.5 (I disagree with Obama results center on three states... 1 more Edwards flip in Iowa, 1 fewer in Louisiana, 1 fewer in Texas Caucus. But I agree with them in not counting the Maryland and DC pledged delegate switching losers.)
Minimum expected pledged delegates tonight: 47
Total w/o Florida and Michigan: 1657.5, 1627 is majority.
Absolute worst case, no deal, as-is named pledged from FL/MI: 98 (67/31).
Total w/Florida and Michigan seated in full: 1755.5, 28 needed, 1783.5 is majority.
PR: is bare, bare minimum 15 pledged for Obama (even if he loses 75-25).
SD: Obama locked into 8-7 pledged win (for winning between 1 vote and by 22.2%).
MT: Obama locked into 9-7 pledged win (for winning between each half of Montana by 1 vote and by 25% statewide).
He's locked into pledged delegate majority under all crazy dishonest Florida-Michigan scenarios that the campaign of evolution's perfected amoral organism wants to throw at Obama. And that is why the victory celebration tonight. A celebration well-deserved and well-earned, though obviously on a sadder day. Edward M. Kennedy, may you feel peace that you changed the world, and you are loved.
Superdelegates as of Tuesday afternoon: 304.5
Supers from MI/FL as of Tuesday afternoon: 10
Pelosi Club who would be new to Obama's column when pledged majority officially over the top: 6
Scenario 2025:
1657.5 + 304.5 + 6 = 1968. Needed for 2025: 57.
Minimum guaranteed pledged in final 3 contests: 32
New add-ons guaranteed by June 4: 5 (AK, WY, HI, ME and at least 1 of 2 GA).
New supers guaranteed June 4: 2; Margie Campbell (MT) officially counts, and a bigger one from MT will announce too.
If Michigan and Florida not seated, would need 18 other supers or Edwards flips from IA/NH/SC by June 4 to go over the top.
Worst-case Scenario 2210:
1657.5 + 98 + 314.5 + 6 + 32 + 5 + 2 = 2135. Needed 75.
Needed 75, available 357:
Overperforming 47 pledged tonight (likely by a couple)
Overperforming 15 pledged in PR (likely by a small handful)
Edwards named pledged dels who haven't publicly flipped IA(5), NH(3), SC(1), FL(13), MI(5), total = 27
Uncommitted statewide Iowa pledged dels - 3
Uncommitted statewide Michigan pledged dels - 19
Add-ons beyond the 5 sure things coming in the next 10 days for Obama - 40
Undeclared non-add-on non-Pelosi Club supers minus the two in MT - 206
__________________________________________________
Topline Predictions:
PocketNines: Obama 32-20... 60.4%-39.6%... 641,371 Dem ballots cast, Obama by 133,405.
Poblano: Obama 29-23... 56.9%-43.1%... 661,470 Dem ballots cast, Obama by 91,168.
Kos: 57.7%-42.3%
PsiFighter37: Obama 32-20... 59.7%-40.3%
Al Giordano: Obama 32-20... 57.6%-42.4%
Chris Bowers: Obama 30-22... 57%-43%
ObamaManiac2008: Obama 31-21... 58.7%-40.4%
NMLib/Elliot @ Election Inspection: Obama 29-23... 55.4%-44.6%
At-large race, 12 delegates:
Winner gets: 50.01%-54.16%, 6-6 split
Winner gets: 54.17%-62.49%, 7-5 split
Winner gets: 62.50%-70.83%, 8-4 split
PLEO delegates, 6 delegates:
Winner gets: 50.01%-58.33%, 3-3 split
Winner gets: 58.34%-74.99%, 4-2 split
Winner gets: 75.00%-85.00%, 5-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 6-0 split
Predictions:
PocketNines: 7-5, 4-2, total 11-7
Poblano: 7-5, 3-3, total 10-8
PsiFighter37: 7-5, 3-3, total 10-8
Al Giordano: 7-5, 3-3, total 10-8
Chris Bowers: 7-5, 3-3, total 10-8
ObamaManiac2008: 7-5, 4-2, total 11-7
NMLib/Elliot @ Election Inspection: 7-5, 3-3, total 10-8
Updating results: Obama 58.85%, Clinton 41.15%
Translation to at-large: Obama 7, Clinton 5
Translation to PLEO: Obama 4, Clinton 2
Total statewide translation: Obama 11, Clinton 7
Congressional District 1 race, 7 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-64.28%, 4-3 split
Winner gets: 64.29%-78.57%, 5-2 split
Winner gets: 78.58%-85.00%, 6-1 split
Predictions:
PocketNines: 4-3 Obama
Poblano: 4-3 Obama
PsiFighter37: 4-3 Obama
Al Giordano: 5-2 Obama
ObamaManiac2008: 4-3 Obama
NMLib/Elliot @ Election Inspection: 4-3 Obama
Updating results: Obama 57.02%, Clinton 42.98%
Translation to: Obama 4, Clinton 3
Congressional District 2 race, 5 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-69.99%, 3-2 split
Winner gets: 70.00%-85.00%, 4-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 5-0 split
Predictions:
PocketNines: 3-2 Obama
Poblano: 3-2 Clinton
PsiFighter37: 3-2 Obama
Al Giordano: 3-2 Obama
ObamaManiac2008: 3-2 Obama
NMLib/Elliot @ Election Inspection: 3-2 Clinton
Updating results: Obama 56.02%, Clinton 43.98%
Translation to: Obama 3, Clinton 2
Congressional District 3 race, 9 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-61.10%, 5-4 split
Winner gets: 61.11%-72.21%, 6-3 split
Winner gets: 72.22%-83.32%, 7-2 split
Predictions:
PocketNines: 6-3 Obama
Poblano: 6-3 Obama
PsiFighter37: 6-3 Obama
Al Giordano: 6-3 Obama
ObamaManiac2008: 6-3 Obama
NMLib/Elliot @ Election Inspection: 5-4 Obama
Updating results: Obama 62.64%, Clinton 37.36%
Translation to: Obama 6, Clinton 3
But note: I am putting all of Clackamas into CD-3 and none in CD-5 which isn't accurate, but I feel obligated to include it somehow. Since Clackamas is much closer to 50-50, the real percentage is probably higher in Obama's favor in this district than the number shows.
Congressional District 4 race, 7 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-64.28%, 4-3 split
Winner gets: 64.29%-78.57%, 5-2 split
Winner gets: 78.58%-85.00%, 6-1 split
Predictions:
PocketNines: 4-3 Obama
Poblano: 4-3 Obama
PsiFighter37: 4-3 Obama
Al Giordano: 4-3 Obama
ObamaManiac2008: 4-3 Obama
NMLib/Elliot @ Election Inspection: 4-3 Obama
Updating results: Obama 58.20%, Clinton 41.80%
Translation to: Obama 4, Clinton 3
Congressional District 5 race, 6 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-58.33%, 3-3 split
Winner gets: 58.34%-74.99%, 4-2 split
Winner gets: 75.00%-85.00%, 5-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 6-0 split
Predictions:
PocketNines: 4-2 Obama
Poblano: 3-3 tie
PsiFighter37: 4-2 Obama
Al Giordano: 4-2 Obama
ObamaManiac2008: 3-3 tie
NMLib/Elliot @ Election Inspection: 4-2 Obama
Updating results: Obama 53.83%, Clinton 46.17%
Translation to: Obama 3, Clinton 3
_________________________________________________
"I know how hard it is. It comes with little sleep, little pay and a lot of sacrifice. There are days of disappointment. But sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this."
-- Barack Obama, Des Moines, Iowa, January 3, 2008.
_________________________________________________
Raise a toast to Dave O.
and all Obama organizers.
And you, too, Iowa. You magnificent bastards.
