I'm worried that too many Obama supporters are getting complacent. Yes, Obama will certainly win a majority of pledged delegates, and it is extraordinarily unlikely that Hillary can win over enough superdelegates to secure the nomination. But from everything we know about Hillary, she is going to fight on, regardless of whether Obama is damaged in the process.
Think about it. North Carolina and Indiana were not 'game-changers' from Hillary's perspective. She was behind before Tuesday, and is only 15 or so delegates more behind now. Hillary's 'game' before Tuesday was to get Florida and Michigan counted favorably for her, declare herself the 'popular vote' winner by way of some absurdly arbitrary metric (i.e. counting MI where Obama was not on the ballot), and then to win over the superdelegates by proclaiming Obama unelectable. And that is still her game now.
Like it or not, Hillary is framing her own political reality, and we need to be prepared for the politics of a 'blowout victory' by her next week in West Virginia, where most polls predict she will win by 20-30 points. Yes, it is far too little too late from a pledged delegate perspective, but that's not how the Clintons will spin it. They will call it a dramatic, earth shaking reversal of momentum that the superdelegates cannot ignore. They will say..."look, after everyone proclaimed Obama the nominee, she pulled off a dramatic victory!" The media will love the story.
Hillary has already set up this narrative, stating today that Obama's support among "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again." And she will claim to have proven this to be true when West Virginia, the ultimate white, working class state, goes overwhelmingly for her.
On May 20, she will again win a state by 20-30 points - Kentucky this time. She will lose Oregon, but will frame it as a split decision, justifying her continuing to fight on. Then on June 1, many analysts expect that she will win Puerto Rico, possibly in a landslide. Given the high rate of voter participation, she will likely add substantially to her 'popular vote' margin (nevermind that Puerto Rico doesn't vote in November).
This is no time to be complacent. The race for delegates is just about over, but the politics are not - not until the Clintons accept reality and do what's best for the party.
So be careful when you talk about Obama's inevitability. Yes, it may feel good and help encourage superdelegates to fall in line, but it has to be framed in a way that doesn't allow landslide losses in West Virginia and Kentucky to give the media an excuse to again re-cast the race. And keep organizing, voting, and donating!
