Previously, there was the Newsweek's Shocker
Obama: 51% (46%)
McCain: 36% (46%)
Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way.
Obama seems to have built his margin in part by picking up a key slice of Clinton's support, including women. Women voters in the new poll prefer him over McCain by 21 points (54 percent versus 33 percent). Defections to McCain by Hillary Clinton supporters are also down significantly since she dropped out of the race and endorsed the Obama. In the new poll, registered Democrats and Democratic leaners who supported Clinton during the primaries now favor Obama over McCain by 69 percent to 18 percent. In last month's survey, Clinton supporters backed the Illinois senator by a significantly smaller margin, 53 percent to 34 percent. Registered independents have also moved toward Obama, backing him by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin after splitting about evenly in last month's poll.
Obama is trusted more to handle what may prove the biggest issue of the 2008 election--the economy and jobs—by a wide margin (54 percent to 29 percent). He also has a sizable advantage on energy policy, 48 percent to 34 percent, despite McCain's attempts this week to turn voters his way by supporting some new oil drilling and renewing his call for a gas-tax holiday. Voters do not lean as strongly to Obama on the issue of the Iraq War, but he is still preferred over McCain by 46 percent to 40 percent.
USA Today/Gallup Snapshot Poll
Obama: 50% (47%) [47%]
McCain: 44% (44%) [48%]
Both contenders have largely solidified their standing among party regulars. Obama is backed by 84% of Democrats, McCain by 87% of Republicans; 9% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans defect to the other side.
Among independents — the group that usually determines election outcomes — Obama leads 48%-36%.
Fox New's "Confirmation" Poll
If any poll were to exist to put the Bounce in doubt, it would have to come from Fox News first... Their last polling was End of April and showed a rare modest McCain Lead of +3. Now the 7% Swing is significant.
Obama: 45% (43%)
McCain: 41% (46%)
Fascinating Question #6: How Satisfied are you with your choice of Candidate:
Democrats: 42% Very Satisfied, 36% Somewhat Satisfied, 12% Not Very
Republicans: 12% Very Satisfied, 42% Somewhat Satisfied, 28% Not Very
And #13: Who do you think Wins?
Obama: 47%
McCain: 32%
Republicans answering Fox News' own poll are quite disheartened.
Harris Interactive
Obma: 44% (41%)
McCain: 33% (37%)
Gallup Tracking:
Obama: 46%
McCain: 44%
Further, Obama's numbers appear quite stable, roughly between 45% and 50%, while McCain does not surpass 45% in any poll taken in the last two weeks. The most likely reason for this IMO is the strength that Obama and Democrats continue to build on the Issues. Let's run through those matters now.
- Opting-Out of Public Financing
The largest Faux-Controversy of the week courtesy of the AP, Media and McCain Campaign is the largest non-issue this week as well. Two quick polls:
Harris Interactive
Two in five (39%) U.S. adults say they would have a more positive view of a candidate who raises from small donors while just 5 percent would have a more positive view of one who raised from large donors;
Over one-quarter (27%) of Americans would have a more negative view of a candidate who raised more than half of his or her money from large donors; however,
There is still a large number who say neither of these scenarios would cause them to change their views. Over half (58%) say their view of a candidate would be neither more negative nor positive about a candidate who takes mostly from small donors and two-thirds (68%) say the same regarding lone who takes mostly from large donors.
Rasmussen findings on Opting Out
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of voters favor public funding and just 16% say it is Very Important in determining their vote.
Call it a Non-Story Non-Issue... the Public, as CW understands, is simply not motivated or concerned about this sausage making story. However, it will make a massive impact in the Fall as Obama's Resources outpace McCain's. Advantage Obama
- Off-Shore Drilling i.e. ENERGY
As John McCain ratchets up the debate in favor of offshore drilling to help offset high gas prices, 62% of Americans agree such drilling should be allowed. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that only 27% take Barack Obama’s position against it.
Advantage McCain
- Trade Negotiations i.e. JOBS
Over half of U.S. voters think the North American Free Trade Agreement needs
to be renegotiated, according to a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey taken just days before John McCain declared that NAFTA must be defended "without equivocation in political debate."
The national survey taken Monday night finds that 56% of voters support
renegotiation.
Only 16% of respondents favor NAFTA
Advantage Obama
- KEY ISSUES IN REVIEW
Democrats now lead in 10 major issues head to head nationally vs. the GOP
Economy
Dem: 50%
GOP: 44%
National Security
Dem: 46%
GOP: 44%
Iraq War
Dem: 47%
GOP: 39%
Immigration
Dem: 39%
GOP: 35%
Ethics and Corruption
Dem: 39%
GOP: 26%
Taxes
Dem: 44%
GOP: 42%
Health Care
Dem: 52%
GOP: 35%
Social Security
Dem: 47%
GOP: 36%
Education
Dem: 50%
GOP: 34%
Abortion
Dem: 43%
GOP: 36%
The damage to the Republican Brand is clear. On all issues, the landscape is favorable for Obama. Now that he's clearly signaled his intent to retain the resources necessary to get the message out, he can stand firm on all 10 subjects and continue to expand his lead nationwide. Advantage Obama
CONCLUSION
State Polling appears just as Strong as National and Issue Polling for Obama. Currently, Poblano has Obama winning in what can only be described as a serious rout.
Obama: 343 EV
McCain: 194 EV
Landslide Potential: 43.41%
Nearly Three weeks now after Obama's emergence as the clear Nominee and Two Weeks after Hillary Clinton's departure from the race officially, with one week before Hillary's attendance on the Campaign, in a week that Al Gore officially endorsed and the Media tried to make stories out of Crowd Engineering and Opting Out, the Obama campaign is running high on all cylinders. Michelle Obama's media appearances seem to be generally on balance beneficial with her continued favored image vs. Cindy McCain (48%-39% per ABC).
Time is passing and the bounce is continuing to slowly grow. One could expect this to continue with the possibility of more Newsweek level polls instead of questions such as Roger Simon's "Where is Obama's Bounce".
Nate reflected on the significance of the Newsweek poll
Nevertheless, he has broken through a barrier of sorts. The last instance I can identify when a Democrat held a 15-point lead over a Republican nominee in any individual November trial heat poll is from November, 1996, when CBS News gave Bill Clinton an 18-point lead over Bob Dole on the eve of the election.
Obama's growing lead is definitely more impressive than where John Kerry stood at this time in 2004.
And John McCain hasn't lead in a single national poll since 5/1 with +1 in gallup and 4/28 +3 in Fox News.
The questions going forward into July are several and clear:
- Why can't John McCain break through 45% Nationally
- Can the GOP Hold Obama below the 50% number Nationally (the next trend to look for)
- What if anything can be done to overcome the massive Party ID Disadvantages nationwide
- What if anything can be done to make voters ignore issues this election season.
After reviewing the Polling in totality, its clear why the GOP default position this season to Smear Away; this however really isn't a strategy, not the face of an unlimited funded candidate with improving fundamentals, issues on his side, and a national gift to speechify.
I then unequivocally declare: Victory appears by all measure to be more likely than any Democratic Candidate since 1996 This said, it is 100% dependent upon your Work and your Support.
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