Four months from now, in September, Aptera will sell the first car in the US that gets 320 mpg. Not 50 mpg like a Prius, or 100 mpg like in your wildest dreams, 320 mpg for a two passenger car.
What does this mean? With today’s gas prices, and future gas prices, the Aptera is the first "car that pays for itself." That should also help it sell itself. It’s also a car that could keep you, and this country from being a slave to oil. But let’s run the numbers and take a look.
[Note: I have no financial interest in Aptera]
Summary of Contents (Fun Pics and Video also!)
I. Apteera - Economic Savings from Personal Adoption
II. Your Mileage May Vary (It may be better than 320)
III. Sources, Gasoline Prices and Price Projections
IV. US Economic Savings from Mass Adoption of Apteras
V. What This Means & More About Aptera
VI. Bankrupt GM Will Come a-Calling
VII. How People Drive Today
VIII. The Aptera Solution
IX. Vehicle Safety
X. Killing Gas Prices & Oil Dependancy: The Aptera Solution
XI. Argument Summary
XII. What You Can Do
XIII. Disclosure: No Connection to Aptera
I. Aptera - Economic Savings from Personal Use
The Aptera will retail for 27K for the all electric and 30K for the hybrid.
Sounds pricy, but what Aptera is about is savings: gas savings, cash savings.
TABLE 1: LIFETIME SAVINGS APTERA VS. AVERAGE AMERICAN CAR
Description: The far left column gives gas prices (per gallon) that are used for calculations in the middle columns. The middle columns show the cost of an Aptera vs. the cost of a 20 mpg car over a 150K car lifetime. The far right column in table shows lifetime savings (It subtracts the Aptera lifetime cost from the 20 MPG lifetime cost.)
Pretty Impressive Savings!! What about a car with really sucky 10 MPG gas mileage?
TABLE 2: LIFETIME SAVINGS APTERA VS. 10 MPG CAR
Description: This is set up the same way as table 1. You can see though that the savings are far more dramatic.
For budgeting purposes, its also useful to calculate savings based upon the miles you travel in a 20 MPG car.
TABLE 3: YEARLY SAVINGS BASED ON 12K MILES TRAVELED
Description: 12K miles per annum was chosen because it is the average amount traveled per driver per year.
If you drive more frequently:
TABLE 4: YEARLY SAVINGS BASED ON 16K MILES TRAVELED
As you can see, if you now drive a lot of miles per year in a 10 MPG car, an Aptera can save you a lot. But what if you tried to maximize your mileage savings in an Aptera.
II. Your Gas Mileage May Vary - It can Be Better
Usually, when you hear "Your Gas Milage May Vary" it means "actual milage may be a lot less." Not so for the Aptera. Here is how Aptera came at 320 MPG as average gas milage.
From Aptera's Website:
The real deal about Aptera's Mileage
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With the All Electric Aptera, it is very easy to figure out the mileage range. The mileage is determined by the distance you can drive, under normal circumstances, until the batteries are effectively drained. In the case of the first Aptera typ-1e, we have calculated the range to be about 120miles.
With the Plug-in Electric Hybrid version of the Aptera(typ-1h) the mileage of the vehicle is difficult to describe with one number. For example, the Typ-1h can drive 40 to 60 miles on electric power alone. Perhaps for such a trip, the engine may only be duty-cycled for a few seconds or minutes. This would produce a fantastic number, an incredible number that, though factually true, would have no useful context, i.e. it's just a point on a graph.
An asymptotic decaying exponential is an accurate way to describe the fuel mileage of the Typ-1h. For example driving say, 50 miles, one might calculate a MPG number that's 2 or 3 times higher, say, 1000 MPG. As battery energy is depleted, the frequency of the engine duty cycle is increased. More fuel is used. at 75 miles, the MPG might be closer to 400 MPG. Again, we're using battery energy mostly, but turning the engine on more and more. Just over 100 miles we're just over 300 MPG, and just beyond 120 miles, we're around 300 MPG.
So why pick a number at 120 miles? Well, it's more than double of most available plug-in hybrid ranges that achieve over 100 MPG. It's three times the distance of the typical American daily commute. It's a meaningful distance that represents the driving needs of 99% of Americans on a daily basis. Sure, it's asymptotic, after 350-400 miles it eventually plummets to around 130 MPG at highway speeds where it will stay all day until you plug it back in and charge it up.
III. Sources & Gasoline Prices and Projections
Sources
It’d be good to stop here and talk a bit about where the data above comes from. First, according to the Federal Highway Administration, the average car in the US gets about 20 MPG. [source:
First, according to the Federal Highway Administration, the average car in the US gets about 20 MPG.] The average driving distance per vehicle is about 12,000 miles per year.
Gasoline Price Projections
According Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal, two senior economists with CIBC World Markets, the price of oil will hit $200 a barrel in 2010 and they foresee some dire consequences.
Their analysis focuses on the repercussions in the U.S. They say gas prices will rise to $7 a gallon from the current level of $4 per gallon and they predict that that will lead to "quantum shifts in driving behaviour in America."
This report may seem foreboding to some in the US, and it should. However, to Europeans are now paying more than $9 per gallon in some countries. Nine dollars! $7 per gallon seems like a downright optimistic projection. At the left is a table of gas prices in Europe [source]. Just think--they used to pay only $4 a gallon!
IV. Aptera - Economic Savings from Mass-Adoption
Now, let’s say for instance, that we replaced all the cars on the road with Apteras. What would the national savings be? Below, some estimates on gas savings, based upon the data in the prior tables.
TABLE 5: NATIONAL SAVINGS ON 5 MILLION CARS (AVERAGE MPG=10)
REPLACED WITH 5 MILLION APTERAS
TABLE 6: NATIONAL SAVINGS ON 10 MILLION CARS (AVERAGE MPG=20)
REPLACED WITH 10 MILLION APTERAS
TABLE 7: NATIONAL SAVINGS ON 100 MILLION CARS (AVERAGE MPG=20)
REPLACED WITH 100 MILLION APTERAS
V. What This Means & More About Aptera
Economic Impact
Those savings numbers are in the trillions, not billions. What do you think a few trillion dollars in savings would do to the national economy, the debt, etc? It could really help us get through this century, not to mention the effect on global warming.
Environmental Impact
Obviously, there would be a large environmental impact as well.
Reduction in Actual Gasoline Prices
With a massive cut in American demand for gasoline there would be also a drop in real prices. The United States and other countries would have to support prices through taxation, which would greatly help the burden on the American taxpayer.
More About Aptera - American Designed, American Built
Unlike GM, Ford, and Chrystler, Aptera is entirely built and designed in the United States. It would be entirely possible to keep it this way as production increases.
Popular Mechanics Review
Aptera Announces it Has Moved into Production
It’s clear that Aptera really thought about how to maximize gasoline savings. Compare for instance the "revolutionary" GM Volt (optimistic production release date: 2010) to the Aptera and you can see the Aptera is more efficiently designed in a countless number of ways. Oh, also, IT'S IN PRODUCTION!!
VI. When Ford and GM Will Come a-Calling
A syllogism:
As goes GM, so goes the country.
GM is going into bankruptcy.
The country . . .
Some stock charts to tell the story:
The combined market capitalization of both GM and Ford is about $15 Billion. Toyota’s market capitalization is $142 Billion.
GM and Ford are headed for bankruptcy. Yet when we formulate our energy policy—a multi-trillion dollar decision——we have in the past consulted with them on CAFE standards, as if they were the panacea to our economy.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t turned out that way, GM & Ford have fired American workers, reduced their benefits, outsourced production overseas, screwed consumers with GMAC financing: all to stay out of bankruptcy and to keep selling cars unfit for their lifespan. Yet, they are headed to bankruptcy, and driving our country there as well.
After years of saying that they knew what was best for their business, and the government should not interfere, they will plead for the government to interfere on their behalf: "As goes GM so goes the country!" "What is good for GM is good for the country!" "We can produce a fleet of cars that gets 30 MPG that's the CAFE standard that's good for GM!"
--We don't need 30 MPG cars in the next few years! WE NEED DRASTIC CHANGE!!
At this point, an appropriate response is needed:
Or simply, "Just Say No."
VII. How People Drive Today
Here’s your typical driving experience. You are sitting alone in your car looking at other people sitting alone in their cars: That is, cars are built for maximum capacity but 99% of the time, they only have one or two people in the car. This is just a total waste of energy. You only need to drive the car you drive about 1-5% of the time. At other times, you could be driving something that saves you money.
VIII. The Aptera Solution
We are frequently told that we can’t possibly cut carbon emissions, produce a car that gets over 100 MPG, but in September it will be here. Instead of funding GM or Ford, as they will beg the country to do, it would be a lot smarter to finance replacing 100M cars with Apteras.
As, the oil billionaire, and Swift Boat financer, T. Bone Pickens explains, 70 % of our oil comes from foreign sources. Or, about 70 cents out of every dollar you pay for gasoline goes overseas. ABOUT $700 BILLION PER YEAR, OR SEVEN TRILLION OVER TEN YEARS--BASED ON TODAY'S PRICES--that is, if you believe for a moment that today's prices will hold.
Pickens is heavily invested in both wind energy and natural gas. He's seen the future and recognizes, as a billionaire oil man, that oil is not the future. Pickens' plan to run cars on natural gas and produce the power that is now produced from natural gas from wind engergy: A is a very good plan for Pickens. However, creating natural gas powered cars is more difficult than building Apteras. And natural gas powered cars just run on natural gas--a disiel-only powered Aptera gets 230 MPG. What we need to do is radically reduce our consumption, not shift our consumption to natural gas. Or at least, produce natural gas-powered Apteras.
So, here’s a few Aptera solutions:
- Spend 10 Billion to finance the $10,000 of the cost of a million Apteras. This will reduce the price to $17,000 to $20,000. This will guarantee that Apteras can build a factory or modify old GM or Ford factories in the United States to produce the car.
- Mandate that GM and Ford license Aptera’s design and produce cars that get more than 300 mpg. In three years, outlaw the purchase of any car that does not get more than 300 mpg.
- Create a non-profit company or government sponsored entity (GSE) "Clean Car Financing" that provides low cost loans to purchasers of highly-efficient cars. Provide an additional rebate for taking gas guzzlers off the road. [Spain already has this program.]
- When GM and Ford go bankrupt, save them from bankruptcy only if they license Aptera’s design and produce cars with equal or greater gas milage than the Aptera.
- Of course, there are many other possibilities.
XI. Vehicle Safety
The YouTube above is a Formula 1 car crash. Formula 1 cars are ultra-light and their bodies are stronger than steel, and contain a cage to protect the driver from side impact. Like the Formula 1 car, the Aptera uses composite materials (I’m not sure whether it is carbon fiber.) and a roll cage to provide vehicle safety at a low weight. Formula 1 cars frequently have crashes at very high speeds, but the design and materials of the car save the occupants lives.
Contrary to popular belief, light trucks have the highest fatality rate of all cars on the road. Large SUVs have the lowest rate, but they also cause the most fatalities. If large SUVs were taken off the road (or were on the road less frequently), overall fatality rates would probably be reduced. It’s questionable whether it is a good national policy to allow heavy vehicle on the road that pose a greater risk to other drivers on the road.
It’s not just the 1992 Honda Civic that is destroyed by the high side impact of a SUV, but many passenger cars on the road today cannot take that kind of impact.
Obviously, cars made with composites, which are stronger than and lighter than steel have a good chance.
Aptera Safety
From their website:
Knowing the public perception of motorcycle safety, we made the decision to make safety a fundamental part of the design of our vehicles. For example, the Typ-1 roof is designed to EXCEED rollover strength requirements spelled out in FMVSS 216 for passenger vehicles. The doors EXCEED the strength requirement spelled out in FMVSS 214. We decided not just to meet many of the specs for passenger vehicles, which are set above and beyond the requirements for motorcycles, but we chose to exceed them whenever possible. Just a few of the many parts of the safety systems on the Typ-1 are airbag-in seatbelt technology, a front subframe and a firewall that redirect energy around the occupants.
IX. Drilling Our Way to Energy Independence?
Even T. Boone Pickens [Swift Boats main financeer] says we can’t drill our way to energy independence, but Bush says it so often, lets look at the best drilling opportunity: ANWAR.
The Department of Energy evaluated that solution and concluded:
Additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR would be only a small portion of total world oil production, and would likely be offset in part by somewhat lower production outside the United States. The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case.
So, average scenario is a cost reduction of 71 cents per barrel of oil, 19 years from now. Let’s do the math on what this boils down to for the American gasoline consumer:
a. Today, 1 Barrel of oil costs $145 (not 19years from now)
b. 1 Gallon of Gasoline Costs about $4.00.
c. Value of Each dollar of a barrel of oil = $4.00/145 = .0275
d. Value of ANWAR .72 per barrell or about 2 cents.
So, AWAR drilling would cut gasoline prices by about 2 cents to maybe 3 cents, 19 years from now, according to Bush’s own Department of Energy.
X. Killing Gas Prices & Oil Dependancy: The Aptera Solution
A. Make the Stakes Clear to the American People
In the past five years, the price of gasoline has gone up fourfold in the United States: $1 a gallon to $4 a gallon. In the next five to ten years, what happens if oil prices go up by another factor of 4: $16 dollars a gallon. Maybe you say, "no this can't happen again." Consider then an optimistic doubling: $8 a gallon. In Europe and , the prices are already over $8 a gallon, in Japan they are $6 a gallon, and they used to be $4 a gallon, so an $8 a gallon price in the United States is definitely possible.
Six dollars, eight dollars, sixteeen dollars a gallon--how are we going to get through that? Our food, our clothes, our commute time to work--all these things that we expend gasoline obtaining or doing, they all have a much greater cost in the US than elsewhere in the world, because we grow our food in California, the Midwest, and Florida, and it all has to move great distances. You can all feel the worldwide gasoline shortage coming, and as it gets worse: higher gasoline prices hurts the US the most, because we are the biggest gasoline consumers, we drive the most inefficient cars, our economy is disperse. Decades of poor planning have come home to roost.
Now, we need to plan for the next ten to twenty years, and beyond.
B. Set Forth a Plan for Real Demand Destruction
- GM, Ford, Chrysler & the Oil Companies No Longer Set CAFE Standards
a. Effect of CAFE Standards Decisions - In the past, the auto companies and the oil companies have set CAFE standards for US automobiles. We are on the precipice of economic disaster because of this fact.
b. Incompatible Economic Interests of CAFE Standards Voting Bloc and the United States - More troubling, the oil companies and the car companies obtained less and less of their income over the past two decades from American production. So even the economic returns they claim to provide to shareholders have come at a cost of a net loss in GDP production. It was a grave mistake over the past two decades to have our national policy for energy dictated by oil companies and car companies whose prosperity has accrued to foreign nations rather than the United States, and now, at the expense of the United States' economic vitality.
- GM & Ford Will be Bought by the Government for $15 Billion
a. Explanation - GM and Ford have a combined market value of less than $15 Billion today. Shareholders can either sell their shares at $15 Billion market value, or await when the government sells the companies back to the private sector in ten years.
b. Benefit to Shareholders - As GM and Ford now have a combined market value of less than $15 Billion, and can only survive with a government bail-out this is a good value for shareholders and the government.
- GM & Ford Will only Produce Apteras for the Next Ten Years
- GM & Ford will License the Aptera design and devote all their production facitlites, in the US and overseas, to producing cars that at a minimum have the per capacity efficiency of the present Aperta design.
- The US Will Prohibit the Sale or Purchase of any Vehicle that do not Meet or Exceed the Efficiency of Passenger/Weight Capacity of an Aptera
- Although 320 mpg may seem like the be-all and end all of vehicles for the future this is not the case: The combined the weight efficiencies and aerodynamic efficiencies of the Aptera still are only one solution. For insatnce, the HaPa drive by PML Flightlink captures the engergy of regenerative braking in a way that the Aptera does not. It is being used by Volvo for the "Volvo Recharge Concept" and Lighting Car Copany in Britian. It seems to provide a greater efficiency than disiel. Given the 230 disiel MPG of the Aptera, and adding a technology such as the PML Flightlink, it is reasonalbe to assume that the 320 MPG by Aptera can be topped.
- The U.S. will at least maintain the current market price of gasoline through national taxes on this foreign import. It will guarantee to the US consumer, an increase of at lease 50 cents per annum in gasoline prices every year fowrward, through either taxes that go to the United States or increases in teh maket price that goes to gasoline producing countries. The message is, "We are not going to see relief from gasoline prices. Any relief that the American consumer experiences will be through a tax rebate.
C. Net Effect
The net effect of reducing our countries oil demand by 50% to 90% will be a large increase in wealth for the average American, tax revenues for the government, and a sustainable economy.
How are we going to survive? We are different from Europe
XI. Argument Summary
Consumers are facing the cost of high oil today; and as prices go higher, the economic impact will be greater. Replacing one car with an Aptera pays for itself, because of a more than 90% reduction in fuel costs. Replacing (or supplementing) a great percentage of our vehicle fleet with Apteras would save the country billions or trillions depending upon our commitment to our country’s economic vitality. It is not a question of can we solve the problem of high gasoline prices, it is a question of whether we want to and whether we can choose not to. We do not do so to our economic peril. And this choice must be a national one. It cannot be left up to a company on the verge of bankruptcy.
XII. Full Disclosure Statement
I, the writer of this blog post, am not affiliated with Aptera; I have not had any contact with Aptera; and I know no other person who is employed by Aptera or has any financial interest in Aptera.
XIII. What Can You Do?
First, recommend this diary so it gets on the recommendation list. Second, send a link to the diary to Congress persons, etc. That is, if you like it. In any case, get mad, because America doesn't have to face economic ruin.