It's easy to get to 269-269. Take the Kerry states, then add 17 EVs, which can come from multiple combinations of the following swing states:
Virginia: 13 EVs
Indiana: 11
Missouri: 11
Colorado: 9
Iowa: 7
Nevada: 5
New Mexico: 5
Montana: 3
North Dakota: 3
Alaska: 3
Nebraska: 1 (assigned by CDs)
Give New Hampshire's 4 EVs to McCain, and you've got even more possible combinations that could get us to that 269-all tie.
So what happens in a tie? Well, it goes to the House. But it's not one-congresscritter, one-vote. Rather, esach state delegation gets that vote. So let's look at the current breakdown in the House:
Alabama: 5R, 2D
Alaska: 1R
Arizona: 4R, 4D
Arkansas: 1R, 3D
California: 19R, 34D
Colorado: 3R, 4D
Connecticut: 1R, 3D
Delaware: 1R
Florida: 16R, 9D
Georgia: 7R, 6D
Hawaii: 2D
Idaho: 2R
Illinois: 9R, 10D
Indiana: 4R, 5D
Iowa: 2R, 3D
Kansas: 2R, 2D
Kentucky: 4R, 2D
Louisiana: 4R, 3D
Maine: 2D
Maryland: 2R, 6D
Massachusetts: 10D
Michigan: 9R, 6D
Minnesota: 3R, 5D
Mississippi: 1R, 3D
Missouri: 5R, 4D
Montana: 1R
Nebraska: 3R
Nevada: 2R, 1D
New Hampshire: 2D
New Jersey: 6R, 7D
New Mexico: 2R, 1D
New York: 6R, 23D
North Carolina: 6R, 7D
North Dakota: 1D
Ohio: 11R, 7D
Oklahoma: 4R, 1D
Oregon: 1R, 4D
Pennsylvania: 8R, 11D
Rhode Island: 2D
South Carolina: 4R, 2D
South Dakota: 1D
Tennessee: 4R, 5D
Texas: 19R, 13D
Utah: 2R, 1D
Vermont: 1D
Virginia: 8R, 3D
Washington: 3R, 6D
West Virginia: 1R, 2D
Wisconsin: 3R, 5D
Wyoming: 1R
A straight up count of the state delegations shows that Democrats control 27, Republicans have 21, and 2 delegations are split. I assume DC doesn't have a say, but if it does, add it to Obama's totals. So Obama wins!
Well, it's not that easy. First of all, the representatives can vote for whoever they want. They're not bound to their party. And there will be pressure like no other on some of these guys representing districts more conservative or liberal than the presidentials. Would Republican Rep. Mike Castle in Delaware cast his state's vote for McCain when Obama carries it handily? What about Stephanie Herseth in South Dakota (assuming a typical Republican blowout)? Or what if Gary Trauner wins Wyoming, and his first task is to cast the entire presidential vote for his state -- the country's most conservative in the union?
Some of these reps will decide to "vote their district". Others will try and take cover and "vote their state". And I'd almost bet my firstborn that it would be Democrats wringing their hands while Republicans came together in partisan unity. It's the curse of being Democrats.
Given these kinds of pressures, the following states would be suspect: Democratic leads in Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, and West Virginia. I'm not saying we'd lose those delegations, I'm just saying we'd have to sweat them. If Obama came within a few points of these states or even won them, the pressure would obviously be reduced substantially. And some of these are certainly in play this year, despite being historically solid Red states.
The other wildcard is this year's elections. The numbers above are for the 110th Congress, and we'll have a brand new one in January 2009.
Democrats are within striking distance of flipping the single-member states of Alaska and Wyoming, as well as Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico. If all goes well, they could earn a clean advantage in Arizona, as well gain enough seats to split the delegations in Idaho and Ohio.
The GOP's best hopes are in Kansas (where they would take the clean lead) and New Hampshire (where they would split the delegation).
All in all, Democrats and Obama have the edge with House delegations, and that edge should get stronger by the time votes are counted on Election Night. This is all GREAT news for McCain, of course! But jokes aside, never assume Democrats will automatically stick with Obama in the case of a tie, especially in Blue Dog territory. It looks good, but nothing would be guaranteed without an outright Obama victory.
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