Honestly, what's the panic about? Granted, I'd like it if all Democrats were united around Barack Obama, but face it: Democrats aren't exactly known for unity. It's sort of a defining characteristic of our party. That said, we've won our share of elections, so the fact that we aren't getting all and every one of us united behind our candidate sounds kind of normal for us. Republicans, on the other hand, have always relied on marching in lockstep, so if there's a split, it's certainly damaging and probably fatal. In 1976, Reagan challenged Ford in the primary, and probably cost Ford the election. Pat Buchanan challenged George H.W. Bush in the 1992 primary, and Bush went down in defeat.
The Democrats' record on surviving a divided electorate is mixed, but a bit better. Ted Kennedy's 1980 primary challenge to Jimmy Carter cost him reëlection, sure, while Robert Kennedy's 1968 primary challenge to Eugene McCarthy was by all accounts on track to be a winning ticket, but we'll never know for sure because of Kennedy's assassination. Breakaway Democrat Harry Byrd almost cost Jack Kennedy the election in 1960, but still, Kennedy survived.
But 2008's primary season was unique, and its dynamics bear consideration. Earlier this year, turnout for the Democratic primaries raised eyebrows from Maine to California and beyond. There were what, 37 million voters in the Democratic primaries, all told? That's incredible! Compare that to the roughly 14 million who turned out in 2004, and you've got something of a phenomenon here. Granted, that's got a lot to do with the fact that the 2004 nominee was settled much earlier than the 2008 nominee, but that's really my point. That's why numbers were higher.
With all these voters turning out in such great numbers, you're almost certain to lose a few of those who backed other candidates. But the fact remains that most voters don't turn out for the primaries or caucuses at all, saving their effort for the general election. If all the voters who backed Obama in the 2008 primaries and caucuses turn out on Election Day, that's still more than all the voters who turned out at all during the 2004 Democratic primaries for all the candidates combined.
Yes, there might be some Hillary Clinton supporters who are so upset about this that they'll actually vote for John McCain. No doubt some will. But I sincerely doubt most of them will. Some might come around and back Obama, but any Clinton backers who still have their hackles up about losing the primaries are unlikely to come around at all. It's more likely that more of them will stay home, but even if they don't, their numbers won't make that much of a difference.
Just like we saw many new voters in the primaries this year, we're likely to see even more new voters in the general. Consider that in 2004, with both parties fired up, we saw a turnout of about 120 million voters. In 2000, with voters not being quite so fired up, we saw a turnout of about 105 million. So while Republicans aren't too likely to turn on McCain (though some already have,) there's an enthusiasm gap that's going to hurt McCain, no matter how many disaffected Democratic primary voters might jump ship in favor of the Arizona senator.
I think the Obama/Biden ticket can win the majority of the fence-sitting Democrats back. The coverage of the Democratic Convention should draw a lot of them back into the fold, and hopefully spark interest among new ones. But with that many new primary voters, it's pretty much a given that we're not going to win over all of them in the general—as usual.
The forecast calls for sunny skies and a tempest in a teapot.
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