My favorite part of the polls issue is when either the candidate himself or one of his surrogates is asked to opine on the latest results. The answer will be one of three. A: "We don't think that it truly reflects what is actually happening in the country". B: "It shows that the voters are seeing who the clear choice is". Or, C: "We don't run our campaign based upon polls". The last one as you well know is a load of crap. Polling is the engine that drives every campaign. Not only do they have teams of analysts who pour over the minutia of each and every one but they all have their own internal polling apparatuses. And the accuracy of any poll regardless of its methodology will be impacted by two factors previously of little consequence: the increased use of cell phones as primary phones and the huge influx of millions of new voters into the process. The best that one can say about polling is that it is a quasi-effective reflection of trends.
What many Obama supporters have been concerned about of late is that he doesn't seem to be gaining traction. But for that matter neither does McCain. They are both running in place. Since their stands on the various issues have been more or less defined (give or take a flip-flop or two) the only other thing that can possibly move the polls for either candidate will be the choice of running mate.
McCain has a bigger problem when it comes to choosing his veep than Obama does. First of all the list of potential candidates is mighty slim pickin's for the Republicans. Once you eliminate who might be gay, or pro-choice, or about to be indicted, or certifiably crazy there ain't a hell of a lot left. In addition, McCain has painted himself into a corner. He rails about Obama's youth and inexperience. That puts paid to choosing anyone more than twenty years or so his junior. He has a problem with the Christian conservatives already so any one, especially Mitt Romney, who doesn't pass their orthodoxy test is out. And his list of possible women running mates is short indeed. None of them has the gravitas or breadth of experience needed. It would be chosing a woman simply because she's a woman. And, of course, the eight hundred pound gorilla, McCain's age and health issues.
Obama's on the face of it would seem to have a lot more options. The Democratic party is teeming with extremely competent and experienced candidates both young and old, any one of whom would make an excellent choice for running mate. Obama does, however, have a "woman" problem. Nnot the same as MCain's but still a problem. The bitterness and rancor that still exists since the end of the primary campaign from Hillary supporters who feel she got a raw deal would make it next to impossible for him to pick a woman other than Hillary.
One of the main arguments that Hillary made during the campaign was that Obama couldn't "close the deal". And it was true to a certain extent. We can not ignore the fact that Hillary won 9 out of the last 13 primary elections. Now it seems, the polls are showing that Obama still can't "close the deal" with the general electorate. There are times when making a sales pitch after you've exhausted all of your talking points and the buyer is still resistant you have to bring in the "closer".
Now, before I continue, I want to make sure that while you are reading this you are neither eating nor drinking. Because what I am about to write might induce either choking or having hot liquid spurt from your nose. OK? Ready?
What makes a great politician is his or her ability to adapt to the circumstances around them. What was once a definite "never, no way, no how" might out of sheer expediency become "yes, for sure, no question". What has gone relatively unremarked upon either by the mainstream media or the ones who usually get it right the first time, the bloggers, is that some recent polling has shown that Obama's chances of beating McCain seriously improve when you add Hillary to the ticket.
I know, I know, I can hear you sputtering and muttering right now. But take a deep breath and just allow yourself to consider the possibility. I myself a few weeks back couldn't imagine her being his running mate under any circumstances. But the first and only thing that must be considered here is that we have to win in November. The future of our economy, the future of the environment, the future of health care, the future of world conflicts, the future of the Supreme Court among many other important issues hang in the balance. We cannot, we must not allow the Republicans to maintain control of the White House. And as it stands now, this election is going to be lot closer than anyone thinks. While the majority of voters are furious with Bush & Co. and the Republican brand in general. McCain still manages to poll his numbers simply because they are concerned about Obama's experience and judgment. These are perilous times both domestically and internationally and the voters are wary of the untried and untested.
That being our main premise, consider Hillary. Putting her on the ticket would immediately shore up Obama's standing among the now almost dis-enfranchised female Hillary supporters. She would off-set his weakness among other voting blocks such as white blue-collar workers and all the other voters he couldn't "close the deal" with. She's already been vetted and vetted and vetted. That's not an issue. And we all are well aware of her negatives. But on the balance sheet the pluses outweigh the minuses. The other eight hundred pound gorilla in this election cycle is of course, Bill. There could be problems with his being vetted because of all the interesting creative business deals he's been involved in since leaving office. But I think such issues would be ignored by the voters. The other problem with Bill might be his inability to keep his anger under control. It was bad enough during the primary when having Hillary win meant he still had a stage to share. But the combination of Obama's win pushing him to the back of the stage coupled with Hillary as veep would result in his being pushed off the stage completely.
Political wisdom says that the vice-presidential candidate does not impact the voters' choice for president. I think this year, that bit of wisdom is about to be disproven.
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