Best Actor in a Leading Role: Mickey Rourke as Randy in The Wrestler. Penn's performance was great, but I believe Rourke's was even better. Couple that with the fact that the Academy loves a feel-good story and I think Rourke will take home the hardware.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Heath Ledger as The Joker in Dark Knight. Ledger's character stuck with you days and weeks after you left the theatre (or at least it did for me). His untimely death makes it a shoe-in that his name will be called, to a standing ovation, for this award. And let's be clear about one thing, the acting in and of itself is definitely worthy of this award, this is not about Ledger dying, though it makes what would be likely into a near certainty.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Kate Winslet as Hanna in The Reader. Winslet's performance in The Reader was the stuff of legends. Winslet nailed the accent, avoiding coming off as a British girl trying to sound German. Moreover, she was able to express the side of Hanna we should empathize with, without allowing the viewer to forget the side of her which we must never empathize with. That my friends, is a very delicate balancing act, and is why I think she will win.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Marisa Tomei as Cassidy in The Wrestler. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking from someone who clearly enjoyed The Wrestler a great deal, but I like Tomei for the hardware. Again, to me the hallmark of great acting is to capture the subtlety of emotions that everyday people experience. Tomei's portrayal of a single mother and stripper who falls in love with a big "sack of meat" (Randy) is epic. The anguish and frustration both of them feel as it becomes clear that they both are never meant to live real lives, but only to perform for others comes through loud and clear. Tomei also refused to let her acting be drowned out by the nudity, she owned those scenes as well as every other scene she was in. Her date with Randy at the bar was also one of the top two or three most memorable scenes in any movie this year.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire. Though I have argued vehimently that The Reader, rather than Slumdog is deserving of this award, my sensibilities tell me that Slumdog is an unstoppable force on its way to collecting this years most coveted prize in film.
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