A lot of big campaign news today, but most of it wound up already on the front-page. Here's the best of what's left:
MT-AL: Rehberg's Polling Is Mediocre Heading Into 2010 Cycle
I give James L. over at Swing State a ton of credit for catching this, especially since it was a Daily Kos poll, and I missed it completely. Buried in the Baucus numbers was a question about how folks in Montana view their Republican member of the House--multi-term incumbent Dennis Rehberg. The answer: not particularly well. Rehberg, who has cruised to election victories throughout his career, has a middling favorability of 46/45, which places him behind both Senator Baucus and Senator Tester (both Democrats). Meanwhile, his re-elect is a meager 39%, with 27% definitely voting to replace. While this does not make him "vulnerable", necessarily, it also does not make him someone out of reach for the right Democratic candidate.
AR-Gov: At Least There Is One Bright Spot For Democrats In Arkansas
Well, at least not ALL of the news for the Democrats out of the state of Arkansas was abysmal. Democratic Governor Mike Beebe remains one of the most popular governors in the country, with a 63/17 spread in his job approval, and a thirty-plus point lead over a prospective Republican opponent, state legislator Allen Kerr. Beebe is not expected to be seriously challenged for re-election in 2010. He's used to that: remember, his is a unique political history. His big win over Asa Hutchinson to win the governorship in 2006 was the first time in over two decades of public service that he even had an opponent in either the primary or general elections.
NJ-Gov: Christie's New Tactic--Minimizing His Own Scandals, Amid Declining Poll Numbers
Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie (NJ), struggling through a string of unflattering new revelations about his character and ethics, has launched a new way of deal with these stories--by making the fun of them. His campaign today launched press releases, and even a fake news report on YouTube, with "revelations" of the following variety: "Christie Spotted Removing Tag From Mattress." This may not help the Christie campaign, since it makes him look as if he thinks his variety of ethical missteps are "no big deal." Voters apparently disagree, as even GOP-friendly Rasmussen shows that Christie's lead (with leaners pushed) is down to just eight points (50-42), which is quite a bit less than the thirteen point lead from earlier in the month. More signficantly, Rasmussen also had Christie, for the first time, with negative favorability (45/51). Curiously, Ras did not test Independent candidate Christopher Daggett, just as they did not test likely Independent gubernatorial candidate Tim Cahill in Massachusetts.
Another poll released today by Democratic pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner had the race even closer, and included Daggett in their data. In that survey, Christie led with 43%, just a hair ahead of Corzine (at 41%). Daggett trails with 7% of the vote.
MA-Sen: Frank Joins Those Calling For Interim Appointment
Add the name of influential Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank to the growing list of Bay State politicos calling for Governor Deval Patrick to have the ability to appoint an interim Senator in advance of the special election to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy. Franks says that:
"We will have a clean, open, honest, fast election. ... The question is what do you do during the interim period, and I think it makes absolute sense to have someone appointed who will have promised not to run again."
One sticking point that is arising, however, is that (as Frank concedes), it will be nearly impossible to legally bind someone to the pledge not to run in the special election. Speaking of said special election, the guys at SSP have some solid early analysis of the potential successors to Senator Kennedy.
IL-08: Republicans Looking For Legit Challenger For Bean
The ancestrally Republican seat held for decades by GOP stalwart Phil Crane appears to be becoming safer and safer Democratic territory. Melissa Bean has won three consecutive elections here, and now the GOP is hunting in earnest for a candidate. This is a tougher recruiting job now, as Bean easily dispatched Steve Greenberg in 2008. The latest recruiting effort is to lure Long Grove village president Maria Rodriguez into the race. She seems open to the idea, and while the NRCC is clearly recruiting her, they are not committing to targeting the district.
KS-Sen: Tiahrt Gains Right-Wing Street Cred With Bennett Endorsement
In the competitive GOP Senate primary to replace Sam Brownback (who is running for governor), Congressman Todd Tiahrt has drawn a big-name Republican endorser: Mr. Book Of Virtues himself--Bill Bennett. Bennett said of Tiahrt: "He doesn’t just talk about conservative issues; he gets out front and leads the charge; whether it’s on issues of life, fiscal responsibility or family values. I am proud to call Todd a friend, and I look forward to calling him Senator."
NY-20: Upstate New York...Where Disco Lives...For-evah!!
(Bonus points for anyone who knows what movie that references) The aforementioned James L. at Swing State has to be pleased--it turns out that he might get to dust off his famous "Panic at Tedisco!" headline once again. It looks like New York state legislator Jim Tedisco wants another crack at Democratic Congressman Scott Murphy. Murphy narrowly beat Tedisco in a special election in the Spring, and obviously Tedisco is betting that a different political climate in 2010 will yield the percentage point or two he needs to reverse that outcome. That said, second acts are only occasionally successful, as this late June article showed.
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