Paterson, Gillibrand, and NY-20

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Thursday January 22, 2009 · 8:48 PM PST

2009/01/22 · 20:48

I've been an agnostic on the whole Caroline Kennedy thing in that I really didn't have a reason to care one way or the other about her candidacy for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. But I am somewhat amused at the idea that mean bloggers somehow mind-controlled David Paterson into picking Kirsten Gillibrand. Mind control wasn't the cause; the upcoming 2010 census is more likely the cause.

Follow me over the jump and I'll explain. Mind the gap!

Here's the deal:

Gillibrand's district, what is currently the 20th Congressional District of New York, has had a rather eventful history. Its constituent counties have, regardless of which district they've been in, generally been fairly conservative historically, which means that Democrats besides Gillibrand might have a tough time defending that seat in the coming years.

Hillary Clinton's vacating her own Senate seat provides a rather neat solution for Gillibrand's and the NYS Democrats' problem: Appoint KG out of her Congressional seat, and then eliminate the seat. Since New York is all but certain to lose a Congressional seat in the wake of the 2010 census, the 20th is the one most likely to be zapped by Paterson and the Democratically-controlled state legislature.

That's a reason a good deal more persuasive than mean bloggers.

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