Six days to go until Election Night 2009....
NJ-Gov: New Quinnipiac Poll Gives Corzine Modest Lead
In Tuesday's edition of the Wrap, I noted that with polls emanating out of the Garden State being all over the map, we might get some clarity today when Quinnipiac, whose polling in New Jersey is pretty well respected, gave us their new numbers. Well, those numbers arrived this morning, and they were excellent news for the Democrats. Incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, according to the Q poll, has moved out to a five-point lead over Republican Chris Christie (43-38), with Independent Chris Daggett polling at 13% of the vote. Like most pollsters have found, Quinnipiac finds Daggett, a former Republican, doing slightly more damage to Christie than to Corzine (remember that yesterday PPP implied that Daggett's presence was actually hurting the incumbent more).
Meanwhile, we can see quite a contrast in who each candidate is leaning on for surrogate support. Former President Bill Clinton came to the state yesterday on behalf of Governor Corzine. Chris Christie, this upcoming weekend, will be getting a hand from ultra-conservative (and ill-mannered) Congressman Joe Wilson (he of "You Lie!" fame). Christie, in a nod to campaign optics and the political reality of his state, will not appear at the rally in person, which is apparently a teabagger-esque event to promote his candidacy.
VA-Gov: Deeds Still Struggling, According to Pair of New Polls
Creigh Deeds had the vocal support of President Obama this week, but he is still struggling to find campaign traction, according to two new polls that were released today. One caveat--the Obama visit was after one of these polls was conducted. Amid Obama's visit, Rasmussen polled the state, and gave McDonnell a thirteen-point lead (54-41). An earlier poll, conducted late last week by Virginia Commonwealth University (PDF File), was even more bullish about McDonnell's prospects, putting him ahead 54-36 among likely voters. Neither of these new surveys polled the downticket races, where recent polling has also given the GOP big leads.
NY-23: MoveOn Jumps Into the Race, And New Polling Coming Soon
Encouraging their loyalists to "defeat Sarah Palin...again", the crew over at MoveOn are entreating their followers to become invested in the special election next week to replace GOP Congressman John McHugh in upstate New York's 23rd Congressional District. Pointing out that Palin and other right-wing luminaries have backed the third-party candidacy of Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, MoveOn is encouraging its supporters to back moderate Democrat Bill Owens. Recent internal polling by two right-wing interest groups hint that Hoffman has moved into the lead in that race. This, of course, contradicted a public poll conducted late last week by Research 2000 for DK which had Democrat Bill Owens up five over Republican DeDe Scozzafava (whose weak effort is putting her at risk of becoming an afterthought in this campaign). For those who do not trust internal polling, fear not! Because.....
ELECTION 2009: Daily Kos/Research 2000 In the Field With New Polls!
With only a few shopping days left until the curtain closes on the 2009 electoral cycle, Daily Kos wants to give its readers one last look at the landscape. With the able assistance of our polling partners at Research 2000, we are taking one final set of surveys in all of the 2009 battlegrounds: New Jersey, Virginia, Maine, and the New York 23rd District. Expect to start to see some numbers in the next day or so.
PA-Sen/PA-Gov: Specter Leads Narrowly, According to F&M
New data emerges today from the Keystone State, as Franklin and Marshall polls the 2010 political battles in Pennsylvania. Based on the data we see, it appears to be a safe guess that the polling team at F&M does not push leaners, even a little tiny bit. On the Senate side, incumbent Democrat Arlen Specter is still struggling in the Democratic primary against Congressman Joe Sestak, although this poll does give him a twelve point edge (30-18). In the general election, Specter has a narrow lead over presumptive GOP nominee Patrick Toomey (33-31), while Toomey leads Sestak (28-20). The polling on the gubernatorial side is scarcely worth mentioning, since the poll has 62% of the GOP field undecided and 69% of the Democratic field undecided (Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Dan Onorato are out front, FWIW).
CT-Gov: Internal Poll Hints At Potentially Competitive Race
Apparently, the sour mood directed at the governors of America, who get to make few good decisions in their executive roles lately, has even extended to governors previously thought to be immune to political pain. The campaign of Democrat Susan Bysiewicz is talking up an internal poll that has her within striking distance of Republican Governor Jodi Rell (47-41). Earlier polls, iuncluding some public polling, had Bysiewicz out in front of the Democratic field. A Quinnipiac poll last winter had her up 30+ points on Dan Malloy.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- Another major pollster, in this case NBC News pairing with the conservative Wall Street Journal, have Democrats leading (PDF file) on the generic ballot test by a margin (8 points) similar to 2008. Expect right-wingers to make hay out of the 17% Republican self-identification, even though it is quite possibly true and largely irrelevant.
- Speaking of national polls, a new one from CNN is not good news for America's Sweetheart--less than one-in-three Americans think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president. Even Republicans are split around 50/50 on the question.
- Dick Cheney emerges from...wherever he was...to make an endorsement in his real home state of Texas: he prefers Kay Bailey Hutchison to Rick Perry in the pending GOP Clash of the Titans primary for Governor.
- It looks like a potentially vulnerable GOP freshman Congressman might be about to get an opponent. Psychiatrist Maureen Hackett is looking at challenging Erik Paulsen, who won just 48% of the vote in Minnesota's 3rd district. Potentially well-funded state senator Terri Bonoff is also said to be contemplating a run.
- Obviously a few good quarters of fundraising and campaign-building has paid off for NH-02 Democratic candidate Ann McLane Kuster. She won the endorsement of Emilys List today.
- Could South Dakota's Republican Senator, John Thune, be facing a candidate named McGovern next year? National Journal says it might happen--in the person of Mark McGovern, the grandson of longtime SD Senator and 1972 Presidential aspirant George McGovern.
- Pollster Tom Jensen of PPP seems to echo a point I made this weekend on Sunday Kos--not all Independents are created equal. A lot of them are former Republicans who can no longer in good conscience admit to being Republicans. Something to think about the next time you see some Beltway pundit talking about the GOP "reclaiming the middle" because they are leading among Independents in some poll