Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/22/2009-11/25/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
|PRESIDENT OBAMA||53 (55)||40 (39)||-3|
|PELOSI:||41 (40)||51 (51)||+1|
|REID:||31 (32)||59 (58)||-2|
|McCONNELL:||15 (14)||68 (68)||+1|
|BOEHNER:||13 (13)||66 (65)||-1|
|CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:||41 (42)||54 (53)||-2|
|CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:||14 (13)||70 (71)||+2|
| || |
|DEMOCRATIC PARTY:||43 (44)||52 (50)||-3|
|REPUBLICAN PARTY:||24 (23)||66 (67)||+2|
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
There is a little bit that one can divine from the numbers above. The President's numbers continue to soften (a trajectory that has been confirmed by numerous other pollsters). Meanwhile, on balance, this is a weak tracking poll for Democrats and a strong one for Republicans. The exception to the rule is in the House leadership, where Nancy Pelosi continues her recent resurgence (with a seventeen point bump in her net favorability in less than two months). At the same time, John Boehner continues looking for the basement with his numbers, which drop a point today to a net minus 53 favorability. On the Congressional ballot test, the margin narrows incrementally, with the Democrats now staked to a five point advantage (37 to 32).
Two numbers, however, which are not listed in the graphic above ought to give the Democratic Party no shortage of concern.
The first indicator of potential peril is the right track-wrong track metric. With each passing day, the mood of the nation is going to be reflected on the current political leadership in Washington DC, rather than the transgressions and incompetencies of the past leadership. And the mood of the nation appears to be darkening, rather than growing more optimistic. After a meteoric rise in the opening few months of the new Obama adminstration, the RT/WT metric now sits at its worst level in months (-17: 40/57).
But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:
QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?
The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:
Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting
Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40
Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will "definitely not vote" in 2010 than are Republicans.
This enormous enthusiasm gap, as well as some polling analysis done by PPP (and analyzed well here by Nate Silver), seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats. This polling data certainly should be something for Congressional leadership to consider, as they move along the legislative path.