As far as anybody knows, Harry Reid is the only person who knows what went to CBO to be scored, and what's in the manager's amendment.
Given what he had slipped into the merged bill--that provision that allows annual limits (neither the HELP nor Finance committee bills left that door open to insurers, so Reid owns that one)--we need to worry about the abortion amendment.
Before the Senate can vote on health care legislation, Democratic leaders have to make sure they have 60 votes lined up to end the filibuster, and that means dealing with the concerns of a number of swing voters, including Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). The vehicle for addressing those concerns will be a manager's amendment, which will include the final version of a public option compromise that's taken shape in the last several days.
But will it also include abortion? Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) suggests very strongly that it will....
"I think it's likely to include most of the things that we need to bring this bill to a conclusion," Durbin said.
"I'm sure the issues you just raised [abortion], as well as issues that have been raised by individual members."
Just one more fracturing point in this debate. It's seeming likelier and likelier that Medicare buy-in won't survive, with Snowe out and out saying no, and Lieberman and Bill Nelson, making serious noises against it. Not to mention the fact that it's looking like a fake Medicare buy-in anyway.
At some point, there needs to be a recognition that it is very possible that all of the moving parts of this effort aren't going to fit together in a way that will make 60 people happy AND pass in the House. Reconciliation can't be off the table.