At some point in the next few days, Reid will file THREE SIMULTANEOUS motions for cloture: one on the Manager's Amendment, one on the Reid Substitute, and one on The Bill.
The Manager's Amendment refers to what will be "the compromise," whatever that will look like coming after the CBO score. The Reid Substitute substitutes a clean version of the bill for the mess that has been produced through this amendment process. The Reid Substitute then becomes The Bill, on which debate must end before there is a final vote.
Debate on each cloture motion will proceed in that order. So here is the best I can offer by way of timeline:
START
- Reid files 3 cloture motions.
- A day passes for the cloture motions to ripen.
MANAGER'S AMENDMENT
- Cloture vote taken on the Manager's Amendment. 60 votes required.
- Assuming cloture is invoked, 30 hours of debate on the Manager's Amendment. (This is ordinarily dispensed with but Republicans are obviously going to take advantage of the rules to delay.
- Up or down vote on Manager's Amendment.
REID SUBSTITUTE
- Cloture vote taken on the Reid Substitute. (Note that this happens IMMEDIATELY after the vote on the Manager's Amendment.) 60 votes required.
- Assuming cloture is invoked, 30 hours of debate on the Reid Substitute. (See 4, above.)
- Up or down vote on Reid Substitute.
THE BILL
- Cloture vote taken on the Bill. (Note that this happens IMMEDIATELY after the vote on the Reid Substitute.) 60 votes required.
- Assuming cloture is invoked, 30 hours of debate on The Bill. (See 7, above.)
- Up or down vote on The Bill.
3 and 9 are the big ones. 3 being a major test vote on the compromise, and 9 being pretty much the final time this thing can be stopped. This whole process could take as much as 6 days.
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