Earlier this month, Rasmussen hinted that Senator Arlen Specter might be getting off the mat, stretching his lead over Congressman Joe Sestak from four points (46-42) to thirteen points (48-35).
Quinnipiac comes out this morning with a new poll that, to some extent, confirms the halt in the Specter slide.
Quinnipiac--Democratic Primary--US Senate--Pennsylvania--Conducted From December 8-14, 2009--Margin of Error +/-3.9%
Sen. Arlen Specter 53
Joe Sestak 30
Specter's twenty-three point lead is a four-point gain for the longtime incumbent and recent Democratic convert. In a late September Quinnipiac poll, Specter had a lead of 44-25 over Sestak.
The good news for Sestak is that there are still grave doubts about the incumbent. Meanwhile Sestak, as the challenger, remains largely undefined, with plenty of time to build name recognition before the primaries.
Sestak has a net positive favorability of +11 (20/9), but the problem for him in the trial heats is that more than two-thirds of Keystone State voters don't know him well enough to form an opinion.
Specter, meanwhile, is nearly universally known, but has a slightly negative tilt to his favorability (43/45). Furthermore, his re-elect numbers are at a dismal 38%, with 50% of voters saying it is time for someone else.
In the general election, Specter is neck-and-neck with former GOP Congressman Patrick Toomey, while Toomey's slight edge over Sestak in name recognition pulls him into a very slight lead over Sestak.
Quinnipiac--General Election--US Senate--Pennsylvania--Conducted From December 8-14, 2009--Margin of Error +/-2.6%
Pat Toomey (R) 44
Sen. Arlen Specter (D) 44
Pat Toomey (R) 40
Joe Sestak (D) 35
The Democratic Primary in which Specter and Sestak will square off is somewhat early in the primary calendar, but is still five months away. The two leading candidates (and a small handful of other hopefuls) will square off on May 18th.