KS-Sen: Kansas is Sebelius country

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Daily Kos Staff

Friday February 06, 2009 · 8:30 AM PST

2009/02/06 · 08:30

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)

Republican Primary (MoE 5% for GOP oversample)

Tiahrt 24
Moran 19
Undecided 57

As we're seeing in primary matchups this early, most people are in little mood to pick side just yet as these two congressman jostle for position in what will be an open seat in 2010.

Tiahrt (R) 37
Sebelius (D) 47

Moran (R) 36
Sebelius (D) 48

Kansas is an exceedingly difficult state for Democrats to compete in. Note that despite Obama's huge popularity around the country, he clocks in only at 48-41 in Kansas. Sure, it's a net positive, and it's numbers that George W. Bush would kill for, but they lag far behind Obama's national numbers. This isn't a hospitable place for Democrats.

Yet here we have Gov. Kathleen Sebelius coming in with a solid 56-37 approval rating, including a surprisingly good 42-54 among Republicans, which is important given that Republicans make up half the state's voters. In the head-to-head matchups, Sebelius, gets about a third of those voters. Independents, another quarter of the voter pool, like her at a 63-27 clip. If those numbers held up, she'd make history by having a Democrat represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1939.

Hopefully, this is the reason she didn't end up in Obama's cabinet despite being one of his most loyal surrogates (and a potential veep candidate at one time) -- because she'd be the most use to him giving Democrats a vote in the Senate.

KANSAS POLL RESULTS – FEBRUARY 2009

The Research 2000 Kansas Poll was conducted from February 2 through February 4, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.

SAMPLEFIGURES:

Men 290 (48%) Women 310 (52%) Democrats 168 (28%) Republicans 294 (49%) Independents/Other 138 (23%) 18-29 108 (18%) 30-44 192 (32%) 45-59 198 (33%) 60+ 102 (17%) District 1 149 interviews District 2 152 interviews District 3 150 interviews District 4 149 interviews REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY Men 220 (55%) Women 180 (45%) QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt? ALL MEN WOMEN Todd Tiahrt 24% 27% 21% Jerry Moran 19% 17% 21% Undecided (NOT READ) 57% 56% 58% ALL VOTERS QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jerry Moran? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not): VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 12% 30% 13% 9% 36% FAV UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 42% 22% 36% MEN 41% 24% 35% WOMEN 43% 20% 37% DEMOCRATS 23% 35% 42% REPUBLICANS 55% 14% 31% INDEPENDENTS 38% 23% 39% 18-29 39% 24% 37% 30-44 43% 22% 35% 45-59 41% 23% 36% 60+ 44% 20% 36% QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Tiahrt? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not): VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 13% 31% 15% 10% 31% FAV UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 44% 25% 31% MEN 47% 23% 30% WOMEN 41% 27% 32% DEMOCRATS 21% 45% 34% REPUBLICANS 59% 13% 28% INDEPENDENTS 41% 27% 32% 18-29 40% 29% 31% 30-44 46% 24% 30% 45-59 43% 26% 31% 60+ 47% 22% 31% QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kathleen Sebelius? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not): VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 15% 41% 25% 12% 7% FAV UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 56% 37% 7% MEN 52% 42% 6% WOMEN 60% 32% 8% DEMOCRATS 75% 16% 9% REPUBLICANS 42% 54% 4% INDEPENDENTS 63% 27% 10% 18-29 59% 33% 8% 30-44 53% 40% 7% 45-59 58% 35% 7% 60+ 52% 41% 7% QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kathleen Sebelius the Democrat and Jerry Moran the Republican? SEBELIUS MORAN UNDECIDED ALL 48% 36% 16% MEN 43% 42% 15% WOMEN 53% 30% 17% DEMOCRATS 74% 6% 20% REPUBLICANS 32% 57% 11% INDEPENDENTS 51% 28% 21% 18-29 52% 31% 17% 30-44 46% 39% 15% 45-59 50% 34% 16% 60+ 44% 41% 15% DISTRICT 1 40% 46% 14% DISTRICT 2 56% 28% 16% DISTRICT 3 57% 27% 16% DISTRICT 4 39% 43% 18% QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kathleen Sebelius the Democrat and Todd Tiahrt the Republican? SEBELIUS TIAHRT UNDECIDED ALL 47% 37% 16% MEN 42% 43% 15% WOMEN 52% 31% 17% DEMOCRATS 74% 6% 20% REPUBLICANS 30% 60% 10% INDEPENDENTS 50% 27% 23% 18-29 52% 30% 18% 30-44 45% 40% 15% 45-59 49% 35% 16% 60+ 43% 42% 15% DISTRICT 1 40% 47% 13% DISTRICT 2 55% 28% 17% DISTRICT 3 56% 26% 18% DISTRICT 4 38% 47% 15% QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not): VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 13% 35% 25% 16% 11% FAV UNFAV NO OPINION ALL 48% 41% 11% MEN 45% 45% 10% WOMEN 51% 37% 12% DEMOCRATS 81% 12% 7% REPUBLICANS 24% 63% 13% INDEPENDENTS 59% 29% 12%

18-29 52% 37% 11% 30-44 45% 44% 11% 45-59 51% 38% 11% 60+ 44% 46% 10%

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