Research 2000's latest poll for Daily Kos heads deep into the heart of Texas, and gives us plenty of exciting numbers to sift through.
We tested four Republicans and two Democrats for the Senate Race Which Does Not Exist, the prospective race for the seat of Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison (who is expected to become the state's next Governor). These include:
• Attorney General Greg Abbott (R)
• Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R)
• Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R)
• State Sen. Florence Shapiro (R)
• Former Comptroller John Sharp (D)
• Houston Mayor Bill White (D)
Abbott and Dewhurst are stand-ins for "strongest possible Republican", while Williams and Shapiro are actual announced candidates. Meanwhile, Sharp and White are both the strongest possible Democrats, and announced candidates.
Without further ado...
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/20-22. Registered voters. MoE 4%. (No trend lines)
Greg Abbott (R) 43
John Sharp (D) 36
Greg Abbott (R) 42
Bill White (D) 36
David Dewhurst (R) 44
John Sharp (D) 37
David Dewhurst (R) 43
Bill White (D) 37
John Sharp (D) 37
Michael Williams (R) 34
Bill White (D) 38
Michael Williams (R) 34
John Sharp (D) 37
Florence Shapiro (R) 33
Bill White (D) 38
Florence Shapiro (R) 33
White and Sharp poll around the same level - 36% to 38% - against all the Republicans in the field. The best-known guys - Dewhurst and Abbott - poll ahead of them, but within single digits, suggesting that this should be a pretty compelling race when it gets under way.
Both Dems lead Republicans Williams and Shapiro, and have superior favorables. In fact, Sharp and White enjoy superior favorables to all Republican candidates except for Abbott.
Republicans love Williams, who would be the first black Senator elected from the South since Reconstruction if he won (you know how the Republicans are always looking for black Repub candidates), but he lacks the name recognition of Abbott and Dewhurst and so starts behind the Democratic candidates in the race. His numbers are superior to Shapiro's, though, who is in the weakest position of all:
Favorable Unfavorable Net
Greg Abbott (R) 45 26 19
John Sharp (D) 36 24 12
Bill White (D) 33 23 10
David Dewhurst (R) 39 31 8
Michael Williams (R) 33 25 8
Florence Shapiro (R) 28 24 4
Barack Obama (D) 45 53 -8
Obama's numbers are about where you'd expect in a Southern state he lost by 10 points. It'll be interesting to see how they stand in three years.
We also polled the Governor's race...and the numbers don't look so hot.
Rick Perry (R-inc) 52
Tom Schieffer (D) 37
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 57
Tom Schieffer (D) 35
Schieffer's favorables are OK, actually, considering not many know him. But check out Perry's:
Favorable Unfavorable Net
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 64 29 35
Tom Schieffer (D) 26 11 15
Rick Perry (R) 51 45 6
We did not expect Perry to have positive favorables (though his job approvals are well into negative territory. If accurate, that's an unfortunate omen, since Democratic hopes of picking up the Governorship are predicated on Perry winning an ugly primary.
For a laugh (gallows humor), check out Schieffer's website. Yikes.
