Begich to Alaska GOP: I'm not resigning

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Friday April 03, 2009 · 5:45 AM PDT

2009/04/03 · 05:45

No surprise here--except that the response came this soon. Mark Begich told his state's Republican Party that he isn't going anywhere--at least not until 2015.

Begich fired back Thursday, saying that although he believed it was clear there was misconduct during the senator's trial, he stepped into the race "long before Senator Stevens' legal troubles began, because Alaskans were looking for a change and a senator as independent as Alaska.

"Today, with our country in a severe recession, it's more important than ever that we have a senator focused on fixing our economy so Alaskans have the jobs they need to support their families," he said. "That is my job in the Senate, and I'm honored to serve Alaskans for the next six years."

Amen. And looking at the polling trends as well as election night, I really don't see where the Repubs have an argument that Stevens would have won if not for the case against him.

Looking at the polling trends for the Stevens-Begich race (courtesy of our old friend, Pollster.com), only one pre-indictment poll didn't show a Begich lead--and that was a Rasmussen poll taken in June showing Stevens up two. Also, the polls significantly underestimated the final margin. The Pollster composite predicted a four-point Begich win; the final margin was a 1.2-point Begich win.

Moreover, what the Repubs conveniently leave out is that Stevens was actually ahead on election night, and was leading for most of the recount before getting buried by a tsunami of Anchorage votes--and Anchorage was probably going to go big for their mayor anyway. If Begich had won by more than five points, the Repubs might have had an argument that prosecutorial misconduct might have influenced the vote--but considering the polling data, that "might" is about as big as Alaska and Texas put together.

Of course, I forgot about the 500-pound gorilla in the room. This case foundered primarily because the prosecution's star witness perjured himself on the witness stand--and the prosecutors almost certainly knew he was giving perjured testimony. I'm of the mind we wouldn't even be discussing a Begich resignation if it hadn't been for Bill Allen's perjury--as I said yesterday, I believe Holder was going to try this case all over again due to the serious misconduct he'd uncovered before Allen's interview came up. So why, pray tell, aren't Sarah and her fellow Repubs focusing their rage on Allen rather than Begich?

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