A poll released just yesterday (April 6th, 2009) by Quinnipiac finds that Paterson's appointee to replace Hillary Clinton as the junior Senator from New York, is slipping behind the only potential Democratic primary challenger to indicate her intention to run:
"In a Democratic primary matchup, [U.S. Sen. Kirsten] Gillibrand trails U.S. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy 33 - 29 percent, with 33 percent undecided.
It is important to note that neither McCarthy nor Gillibrand is well-known to voters, with about two-thirds (64% Gillibrand, 68% McCarthy) saying they don't really have enough information about either yet.
To that extent, this result is particularly tough for Gillibrand, as she has been far more in the news in recent months than McCarthy, due to the national profile of the Paterson decision. That voters would narrowly prefer McCarthy at this stage despite nearly 7 in 10 not knowing much about her suggests that Gillibrand has a tough row to hoe against any generic Democrat in a primary.
664 Democrats were polled, with a margin of error of 3.8%.
NOTE #1: The poll also finds that Cuomo would beat Paterson for Governor in 2010, by a whopping 61%-18%.
NOTE #2: The New York Times has just misreported this number, reversing the Gillibrand and McCarthy figures. The error has been pointed out to the Times in its reader comments, and presumably be corrected. The numbers can be verified at the Quinnipiac site, where the full release can be read:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
NOTE #3: More info about a progressive movement to primary this seat in 2010 can be found at http://www.progressivenewyork.org/ ; there is also a Facebook group devoted to the topic at http://apps.facebook.com/... .