For those into anniversaries, it was one year ago tonight that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split the Oregon and Kentucky primaries.
I must confess that I barely remember. I spent May 20th of last year hooked up to about ten IV's in an emergency room, having been felled by a severe staph infection in my left leg that knocked me out of commission for nearly a week.
For what it is worth, I can attest that Obama's speeches do not sound better under the influence of morphine.
And on that little glorious bit of T.M.I.--let's wrap up this Wednesday in politics.
NATIONAL: Republican Pollster Confirms Good Democratic Numbers
Moore Information (R), which has one of the greatest names in the polling biz, in my opinion, is out with a national survey. Usually, the data from partisan polling outfits has a predictable tilt. This week's polls by Democracy Corps/G.Q.R. and Moore rebut that assumption. Moore gets very reasonable figures: they have President Obama's approval rating at 60% (30% disapproving), and they give Democrats a seven-point edge (42-35) in the generic congressional ballot test.
THE BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: Jerome Corsi Is A Tool. America Shocked and Surprised
Media Matters makes a great catch. In a piece for WorldNetDaily, right-wing professional hitman Jerome Corsi implied that 538.com number-cruncher Nate Silver had done some analysis, and determined that the Democrats would lose the House if Obama could not maintain a job approval rating of 65%.
Well, that would be quite the mountain to climb, and it would be quite the dilemma for Democrats.
There is only one problem--Silver had said no such thing. What the artist formerly known as Poblano DID say: Democrats could lose GROUND in the House if Obama did not keep that lofty job approval. Corsi was citing this Esquire piece. Surely, he can tell the difference between losing CONTROL and losing GROUND, can't he??
AL-GOV: Davis Internal Shows Him Winning General, Plus Primary in a Landslide
Grab the salt for this one. AL-07 Congressman Artur Davis has released a poll on his campaign website saying that he is easily leading the Democratic Primary, and has a modest lead in the general versus former GOP state senator Bradley Byrne (43-38).
The Democratic primary figures strain credibility a little bit: the poll (from Anzalone-Liszt) has Davis leading Ron Sparks 56-26 in the Democratic Primary, and leading Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb 54-25. I am not entirely sure I buy a local congressman, even one as high-profile as Davis, having that big an edge over two Democratic statewide officials. I would love to see some independent data here.
IL-SEN: Chris Kennedy Is In the 2010 U.S. Senate Race
This was covered a lot in political circles yesterday, but Chris Kennedy, RFK's son and Merchandise Mart head honcho, is set to announce a bid for the U.S. Senate. This sets us a pretty intriguing dynamic within the White House in handicapping this race for Obama's old Senate seat. State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has been a high-profile F.O.B. (Friend of Barack), but Obama's Chief Of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, was apparently talking up Chris Kennedy's potential candidacy recently.
MS-01: Childers Rebuffs Party Switch Talk in Profile
In a profile for a Northeastern Mississippi news site, Travis Childers rebuts talk that he might switch to the Republican Party to avoid an uphill political battle in this district that went strongly for John McCain.
Childers strongly rejects predictions by some national pundits that he'll become a Republican to avoid that party's crosshairs when he seeks re-election in 2010 in the previously GOP district.
"Absolutely not," he said.
"I'm a Southern Democrat - I vote what's best for Mississippi," which may not fit neatly into a party cookie-cutter, he noted.
NJ-GOV: New Polling in 2009 Governor's Race A Bit of A Buzzkill For Dems
Not that any of the polling for Democrats in New Jersey has been uplifting as of late, but two new polls give a twin downer for the Democrats. First off, both Monmouth and Quinnipiac poll the Republican primary (coming up in a couple of weeks). Contrary to the best hopes of some Democrats, it looks like conservative insurgent candidate Steve Lonegan is going to come up short in his bid against GOP favorite Chris Christie. Monmouth has Christie up by eighteen (50-32), Quinnipiac has Christie up by twenty-three (56-33). Quinnipiac compounds the wound by releasing a general election poll showing a consistent trend: both Republicans with leads, but Lonegan (42-40) more vulnerable to a comeback bid than Christie (45-38).
One consolation--both polls were conducted before it became clear that Christie was a Mark Sanford clone on the stimulus, as DavidNYC told us yesterday.
NY-GOV: One 'Where Are They Now?' Question Gets Answered
I know you have been wondering for years: whatever happened to that Rick Lazio guy that HRC beat like a drum in 2000? Well, he's back: and he is running for Governor. The former Long Island congressman, who got 43% of the vote running against Clinton in her 2000 bid for the U.S. Senate, is gearing up to run for governor in 2010. Other potential Republicans in the race include Erie County Executive Chris Collins and some guy named Giuliani.
OK-GOV: Republicans Start Out With Modest Edge For Governor in PPP Poll
One of the most accurate pollsters out there, PPP, polls the Oklahoma Governor's Race. Despite two potential high-profile candidates in attorney general Drew Edmondson and Lt. Governor Jari Askins, team Blue does not fare well in the poll. OK-05 Congresswoman Mary Fallin beats Edmondson by ten (48-38) and beats Askins by sixteen (50-34). Meanwhile, JC Watts (also being mentioned for the Senate) is looking at an eight point edge over Edmondson (47-39) and an eleven-point lead over Askins (47-36).
VA-GOV: PPP Explores The Impact of Primary Turnout
Tom Jensen at PPP also lets us in on a potentially interesting dynamic forming in the VA-Governor's race. They have a poll in the field on the race, and Jensen is already seeing one intriguing trend: among the highest propensity voters, it is a tight contest. But the higher the potential turnout, the better Terry McAuliffe does. Given that he is the best funded candidate, this should not be a big surprise. But it does do something to dispel a growing sense of inevitability that many folks have that McAuliffe is destined to be the Democratic nominee in this race. ESPECIALLY given how low primary turnout can be in the Commonwealth (anybody but me remember the turnout for Webb-Miller in 2006??).
VA-GOV PART DEUX: SurveyUSA Poll Puts McAuliffe In the Lead
Speaking of pollsters and the Virginia Governor's race, we get new numbers from SurveyUSA on that race today. In the Democratic Primary, Terry McAuliffe holds a lead, but not a decisive one. McAuliffe polls at 37%, with Creigh Deeds at 26% and Brian Moran trailing with 22%. Moreover, SUSA finds that a majority of Virginia Democratic Primary voters STILL may change their minds. In the general election trial heats, Republican nominee-in-waiting Bob McDonnell has identical six point leads (46-40) over McAuliffe and Deeds, which is slightly closer than most recent polling has been suggesting. Meanwhile, McDonnell has a 47-37 lead on Moran, should he become the Dem nominee.
VA-GOV PART TROIS: You Say You Want MORE Polling??
Well, then, you are in luck!! Virginia is this week's destination for the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll. Expect to learn the latest on what the voters of Virginia are thinking when the results of this brand-new poll are announced tomorrow.