As the start of school looms, vaccination plans, communication efforts and school closure contingencies dominate pandemic planning efforts by the Federal government and public health officials. And all that activity has the public's attention. From a survey of public attitudes about H1N1 from Harvard School of Public Health run in June:
"Approximately six in ten Americans(59%) believe it is very or somewhat likely that there will be widespread cases of Influenza A (H1N1) with people getting very sick this coming fall or winter. Parents are more likely than people without children to believe this will occur, with roughly two thirds of parents (65%) saying it is very or somewhat likely compared to 56% of people without children," HSPH informed.
"These results suggest Americans are likely to support public health officials in prioritizing preparations for the possibility of a serious H1N1 outbreak in the fall or winter," said Robert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health.
A more recent set of questions from ABC/WaPo polling (Q 31-34) suggests around 40% of the public is concerned about swine flu, there's great confidence (whether it's justified is another story) in federal and local abilities to respond, and nearly 2/3 of respondents will get vaccinated if advised to by their doctor.
33. (HALF SAMPLE) Do you think you or someone in your household will get a swine flu vaccination when it becomes available, or not?
Will Will not No opinion
8/17/09 55 41 4
- (HALF SAMPLE) Assuming your doctor recommends it, do you think you or someone in your household will get a swine flu vaccination when it becomes available, or not?
Will Will not No opinion
8/17/09 65 32 3
There's certainly been a resurgence of news stories about H1N1. To cite a few examples, the WSJ is running an FAQ about swine flu, and the Washington Post has a prominent article quoting some of the leading experts in influenza and infectious disease research and practice, including Arnold Monto, Eric Toner, Joe Bresee and Marc Lipsitch (over the years, many including myself have turned to these folks for explanations of the finer points of pandemic lore):
While flu viruses are notoriously capricious, making any firm predictions impossible, a new round could hit the Northern Hemisphere within weeks and lead to major disruptions in schools, workplaces and hospitals, according to U.S. and international health officials.
"The virus is still around and ready to explode," said William Schaffner, an influenza expert at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine who advises federal health officials. "We're potentially looking at a very big mess."
President Obama arrived in Mexico on Sunday for a two-day summit that will include discussions on swine flu, along with Mexico's drug wars, border security, immigration reform and economic recovery.
"Everyone recognizes that H1N1 is going to be a challenge for all of us, and there are people who are going to be getting sick in the fall and die," said John O. Brennan, the U.S. deputy national security adviser for counterterrorism and homeland security. "The strategy and the effort on the part of the governments is to make sure we . . . collaborate to minimize the impact."
The AP has more on what that collaboration means:
Sit for hours amid the sneezing in an emergency room this fall, and if you didn't arrive with swine flu you just might leave with it.
Fearing swamped ERs, the government is working with worried doctors to develop hot lines or interactive Web sites to help the flu-riddled decide when they really need a hospital - and when to stay home.
With flu season rapidly approaching, the plans aren't finished yet, and it's too soon to know how many people could access such programs.
But, "we are working on triage systems so people will have good information about, 'What will I need to do?'" Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told state health officials last week.
Current thinking is that this pandemic more resembles the one in 1957 than the one in 1918 (and that's a very good thing.) As it happens, many of the measures outlined above were used in 1957.
There is need for an understanding in national policy circles of the options for dealing with a pandemic, and time is short if states and local communities are going to be prepared," [DA] Henderson {University of Pittsburgh Medical Center] said...
The authors wrote that though no one can predict how a pandemic will unfold, "we would be ill-served if we did not consider past experience." The 1957 pandemic resembles the 2009 pandemic in that both viruses circulated in the summer months in the United States while the virus hit the southern hemisphere during its normal influenza season. Current disease patterns are also similar to the 1957 pandemic: illnesses are generally mild and the virus predominantly strikes younger people. The 2009 pandemic strain also appears to cause a similar case fatality rate to the 1957 strain, they add.
This is how the 1957 pandemic played out in Europe:
and this is how it played out in the US:
Peter Sandman has some very helpful communication advice, which also sums up the situation nicely:
- Pandemic H1N1 will almost certainly be pervasive.
- Pandemic H1N1 looks very mild so far. [unless you get it! See parallels to 1957 - DemFromCT]
- We must prepare for the possibility that pandemic H1N1 could become more severe.
So what does that last point mean? What preparations are we talking about? In regard to preparations, I had the opportunity along with other bloggers to ask John Brennan and CDC's Rich Besser (now on his way to ABC News) a few questions earlier this summer, and clearly the school preparedness issue was a paramount topic for both questioners and respondents (more below the fold.)
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