Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 8/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/4-6 results)
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
Specter 48 (56)
Sestak 33 (11)
Undecided 19 (33)
Wow. Specter is down eight, Sestak is up 22. That's a massive 30-point net swing. Sestak appears to be getting the early undecideds while chipping away at Specter. Incredible. The last time we saw this was in 2006, around the same time, when in my keynote address at YearlyKos I announced that Ned Lamont was going to win the Connecticut Democratic primary against Joe Lieberman because...
Just today we get news of a new poll out of Connecticut. A month ago, a Quinnipiac University had the Senate Democratic race at 65 percent Joe Lieberman, 19 percent Ned Lamont.
Today's poll? Lieberman's lead has shrunk to 55-40 amongst likely Democratic primary voters.
Lieberman is going to lose.
In retrospect, this was kind of a stupid thing to say -- the incumbent over 50 percent, with a 15 point gap? And to think, there were only a few months left in the campaign. Sestak is in much better shape -- he's pulled Specter under 50 percent and there are 11 months left until the primary. Yet I'm not going to be so bold as to declare, right now, that Specter will lose. We've got a long way to go on this. Still, Specter's approval ratings are down to 52-40, from 54-36 in May (net -6), while Sestak is up 37-19, from 29-15 in May (net +12). And note, 44 percent still don't know who Sestak is. This is terrible news from Specter.
Rasmussen also polled this race this week, and has it even closer -- Specter 47, Sestak 34. I don't know if Rasmussen's descent into winger-land on the Obama numbers has infected their battleground polling just yet, but at least in this case, they validate our numbers.
Back to the R2K poll, let's look at the general election numbers:
Specter (D) 45 (55)
Toomey (R) 40 (31)
Sestak (D) 42 (37)
Toomey (R) 41 (32)
Toomey has hilariously moved to the center, claiming he would've voted to confirm Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. (Imagine, had Specter remained a Republican, how Toomey would've bashed Specter for a vote to confirm...) But as much as we may laugh, it appears to be having some effect. Toomey's favorabilities are now 37-34, up dramatically from May's 33-44 (net +14)! Toomey can't be allowed to define himself while Sestak and Specter settle things on the Democratic side. The DSCC may have to do some early work to knock Toomey down a peg or two.