Marc Ambinder, citing unnamed White House officials (thereby adding to the parade of anonymity), says the administration believes progressives will agree to dump the public option because health care reform will include "a goodybag" including a legal mandate that all individuals purchase coverage from a private health insurance plan.
The president continues to operate under the belief that liberals will warm to the bill when presented with a goodybag that includes includes an individual mandate, community rating, guaranteed issue, and a minimum required package. There's no chance, really, that a bill WON'T feature these reforms. Quietly, to secure and keep Democrats on board, the White House is going to bargain, providing inducements, like more money for favored projects, etc., in order to secure individual votes.
Keeping in mind that this anonymously sourced report could be total bunk, it's worth pointing out that axeing the public option and requiring individuals to purchase coverage under a private health insurance plan would be a horrible political miscalculation. If you think we're having problems selling health care reform now, just wait until we try to explain why all adults under 65 will be required to purchase health insurance from the private sector with no public option.
Oh, you're not interested in making that argument? I didn't think so.
When coupled with a public option (or the sort of rigorous regulatory regime which isn't under consideration), a mandate achieves universal coverage and cures the free-rider problem. But without the public option, the private sector will have a monopoly on a product the public is required to buy, and over the long-run you'll almost certainly see premiums skyrocket and quality of care plummet.
It's possible a private insurance mandate could be rammed through Congress, but if that happens, the only people that will be happy about it are insurance company CEOs. Just ask Max Baucus. He's the one who explained why insurance CEOs like the idea of a 'mandate' without a public option: they want people to be legally required to buy their product. Who can blame them? After all, they are in this thing to make money. It's their job. And forcing people to buy their product is a great way to make money.
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