One interesting little tidbit that caught my eye today was a memo released by the usually wishy-washy Charlie Cook:
The situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low.
I cannot disagree with is first sentance. Obama has had no control of Democrats in Congress for the last couple of months and his inability to explain from the heart exactly why we need healthcare reform and how it will beneift the majority of Americans. However, I wouldn't say that the situation has spun "completely" out of control.
He then continues
Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu(he must mean 1994), with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats. A new Gallup poll that shows Congress’ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents should provide little solace to Democrats. In the same poll, Congressional approval among independents is at 22 percent, with 31 percent approving overall, and 62 percent disapproving.
The one good thing is that most of those 20 seats lost would probably be blue dogs who dont support Obama anyway, which Cook pointed out on Hardball the other night. However, if losses started mounting above that number of 20, it could conceivably restore Republicans to control of the House, making John Boehner speaker.
Now, here is what is really frustrating
That all of this is happening against a backdrop of an economy that appears to be rebounding and a resurgent stock market underscores how much the President’s and his party’s legislative agenda have contributed to these poor poll numbers.
There is more maddening for a political party than not getting credit for what is statistically a good economy. It was true for Democrats in 1994 and to a lesser extent, Republicans in 2006.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/...
The good thing here is that the 2010 elections are still 13 months away. Things could easily turn around if a healthcare bill passed or if there was some unexpected foreign policy crisis that would boost President Obama. Things CAN be turned around. I am not saying that they will, but there is a chance.
Comments are closed on this story.