Hart Research for the DSCC. 10/8-10/10, 604 likely voters. MoE 4.0:
Sestak (D): 47
Toomey (R): 44
This is the first poll in a while to show Sestak ahead in Pennsylvania, and it’s an internal poll. However, my research on polling averages suggests that including internal polls in the final averages actually increases the accuracy of the averages. Also, it is the first Pennsylvania poll that will be included in the final Senate Snapshot, since the majority of its interviews were conducted on or after October 8th.
Bottom line: even with the caveats, this poll shows Pennsylvania is a very winnable campaign. As such, we are adding Joe Sestak to the Orange to Blue page, and are looking for 500 people to contribute $10 to support Joe.
This is the sort of win that would end Republican plans to take control of Congress. If we can grab a win in Pennsylvania, then Republicans would only have a 0.5% of taking control of the Senate, according to my calculations.
It would also deal a crushing blow to the Tea Party, aka the new name for the long-standing conservative effort to elect the far-right Republicans. As head of the Club for Growth, Sestak’s opponent Pat Toomey spearheaded this effort for years even before it started calling itself the "Tea Party." A contribution to defeat Toomey is a contribution to defeat one of the conservative movement’s ringleaders.
As always, we only endorse candidates who will make the Daily Kos community proud. I can personally attest that Admiral Sestak is as hard working as any candidate you will find anywhere. Further, he has given positive answers to all the questions on our Orange to Blue Questionnaire, which focuses on health care, climate change, immigration, LGBT right, labor rights, and Senate rules reform.
Contribute $10 to Joe Sestak today. This campaign is a linchpin in 2010.
Update:: Wow! 500 appears to have been too easy for you. How about a goal of 1,000 donors?
Update 2: Holy Frak! We passed 1,000 already! How about 1,500, then?