From the department of "You can't be serious"

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Wednesday November 24, 2010 · 5:00 PM PST

2010/11/24 · 17:00

Generally, folks who want honest data from their political opinion polling should applaud the kind of introspection that often comes after election day.

Case in point: the decision a few weeks back by the consortium of Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) and the Humphrey Institute to review their polling methodologies in the wake of the November 2 balloting.

After all, the MPR/Humphrey poll did forecast a double-digit win for Democrat Mark Dayton, a candidate whose likely victory came by a margin of less than one percentage point.

See if you can spot the problem, however:

[MPR-Humphrey] said in a statement Thursday the process will include an internal review by the Humphrey Institute, and an independent audit by Frank Newport, the editor and chief of Gallup.

The MPR-Humphrey Institute polls were accused of consistently overstating support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton.

An independent audit?
By Frank Newport?
Of Gallup?
These guys?

Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

(October 31,2010)

A quick glance at Gallup's front page did not reveal a similar introspective self-evaluation or independent audit pending for their organization, despite polling that was so far off of the mark that the fifteen-point spread they had at the end was the "closest" result that they had in their likely voter screen.

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