Yesterday, we noted that Reid says he has 56 votes for immigration reform. I'm going to speculate about who those votes are based on past votes, statements, and Hill sources.
Probable YES, 40 (Republicans in bold)
Probable NO, 32 (Democrats in bold)
With Dorgan retiring, he might be a gettable vote. But for now, I'll keep him in the nos given his past votes against immigration reform. Others, like Alexander and Johanns may be gettable if the stars aligned properly, but I wouldn't count on it.
So who are the "maybe" votes?
On the Democratic side, these 17:
Begich (AK), Pryor (AR), Lincoln (AR), Bayh (IN), Landrieu (LA), Stabenow (MI), Klobuchar (MN), McCaskill (MO), Baucus (MT), Tester (MT), Hagan (NC), Conrad (ND), Brown (OH), Johnson (SD), Webb (VA), Sanders (VT), and Rockefeller (WV).
Now Reid says he has 56 votes, so he's likely got most of these. With 59 votes in the caucus, and just three probable "no" votes, that's 56. Republican Lindsey Graham is co-sponsoring the Senate reform bill, so I assume Reid is counting him in his 56. That means that of the names above, just one is likely a current "no" vote. How much do you want to bet that it's Blanche Lincoln?
On the Republican side, these 11:
Murkowski (AK), McCain (AZ), LeMieux (FL), Lugar (IN), Brownback (KS), Snowe (ME), Collins (ME), Brown (MA), Gregg (NH), Voinovich (OH), and Hatch (UT).
McCain used to be a solid yes, but he's got a bug up his ass about Latinos abandoning him in 2008. Perhaps it had something to do with his promise to vote against his very own immigration reform bill when pressed about it at a GOP primary debate. The Republicans were desperately trying to one-up each other in immigrant bashing, and McCain abandoned his previous support for such legislation to appease the nativists. Then he wondered why Latinos refused to vote for him.
Taking Reid's words at face value, that means he'd have to find four votes among this list. In a sane GOP, we'd get all of those Republicans (yes, even Hatch, who used to be good on the issue until former Rep. Chris Cannon was ousted by conservatives for being pro-reform).
Reid should push for a vote whether he has the 60 or not. While the ultimate goal is reform, even a losing vote would show Latinos where the opposition is coming from, and help motivate them for the November elections.
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