Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/11-14. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Ed Case (D) 29
Colleen Hanabusa (D) 28
Charles Djou (R) 32
The May 22 special election is a "jungle primary", which means that all candidates run on the same ballot line. Thus, Djou may very well win this special by getting barely 30 percent of the vote.
Whoever wins this election will still face reelection in November, so even if Djou wins this overwhelmingly Democratic district, he'd be renting the seat for a few months at best. Republicans want to win this for propaganda purposes, not because it necessarily gets them closer to a majority.
Lieberdem Case's favorability ratings lead the field, at 47/25/28 (Favorable/Unfavorable/No Opinion). Djou clocks in at 40/27/33, while Hanabusa lags the field at 37/31/32. Hanabusa likely suffers from being seen as the establishment candidate in an anti-establishment year. Unfortunately, she's the better candidate, by far.
One note of caution. CQ:
Cultural sensitivity when doing surveys in Hawaii is so nuanced that one pollster commented that polling there is more like Japan than in any other part of the United States.
First of all, many survey participants -- particularly Japanese-Americans -- will say they are undecided when they are questioned about their voting preferences.
"And that's not true," said Dan Boylan, a political science professor at the University of Hawaii. "They just won't tell a person with a disembodied voice on the phone how they're voting."
Japanese-American women, especially, tend to be underrepresented in polling because they decline to answer -- a circumstance that Boylan argued could give Hanabusa an edge in the race.
"Let's say there is 15 to 20 [percent] undecided, I would cut that in half in favor of Hanabusa," Boylan said.
There's no way to conclusively state that this trend is present in this Research 2000 poll. However, look at the Margin of Error -- 5%. Our standard margin is 4%, but R2K was having a hard time getting a larger representative sample in three days. In fact, response rates were well below what they usually see.
So if that political science professor is right, the low response rates could point to stronger support for Hanabusa than reflected in this poll.
Regardless, what is clear is that this contest is anyone's race, and Republicans are in good position for a temporary takeover of the seat.