Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/3-5. Likely voters. MoE 4% (2/22-24 results)
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38 (43)
Mark Kirk (R) 41 (36)
Pat Quinn (D) 36 (46)
Bill Brady (R) 39 (35)
Pat Quinn (D) 35
Bill Brady (R) 39
Scott Lee Cohen (I) 3
Not a good couple of months for the Democrats. Giannoulias has clearly taken a hit from the collapse of his family bank. In the previous poll, Independents basically split their vote 36-35, with the slight (statistically insignificant) edge to Giannoulias. This week, Kirk leads 39-31 among indies, though 30 percent remain undecided.
The best possible news for Giannoulias is that Kirk can't possibly drag out the bank stuff for the next six months (though he'll certainly try). And on the issues, Giannoulias has the obvious advantage. Look at this:
Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely?
Among independents, 43 percent support, 31 percent want repeal. So Alexi is on the right side of this issue, particularly given Kirk's boast to lead the charge for repeal. That certainly puts him on the wrong side of the electorate. Is that enough to offset Giannoulias' troubles with his family's bank? Giannoulias' favorabilities are now 38/46 (compared to 49/34 last month. That's a brutal reversal. Kirk has remained steady, from 42/35 last month to 39/32 this month (both a net +7).
Alexi has his work cut out for him.
As for that governor's race, I have no idea what the 14-point net swing came from. Collateral damage from Giannoulias bank news? A post-primary (delayed) victory bounce for
Dillard Brady? An outlier poll, either this week or last time out? Your guess is as good as mine.