Consider the evening Wrap your unofficial kickoff to the weekend (well, sure, there's still Friday, but...).
And what a kickoff we have tonight. Rasmussen goes the full Ras-sy, which is always good for some entertainment. Also, there's a surprising new frontrunner in Florida, a not-so-surprising lawsuit emanating out of Texas, and the primaries on Tuesday might yield even more legal action.
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: Has Norton lost frontrunner status? Magellan thinks so
With the primaries still a good distance away in the state of Colorado, Magellan (which has been active this cycle in GOP primaries) looks at the race and sees that establishment pick Jane Norton is running out of gas. The poll of GOP primary voters gives conservative insurgent candidate Ken Buck a ten-point edge over Norton (42-32). The winner will face the victor in the Democratic primary between incumbent Senator Michael Bennet and former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff.
CT-Sen: McMahon cuts Blumenthal's lead...down to twenty points
In the most lopsided "close race" in America, Quinnipiac shows a race that has tightened...from 25 points down to twenty points. Blumenthal still holds a 55-35 lead over McMahon, and larger leads over Rob Simmons (who Q continues to poll, despite his decision to stand down) and Peter Schiff. While Blumenthal's favorabilities have come out of the stratosphere they occupied back in March, they still remain extremely high (59/29).
FL-Sen: Dem primary poll puts Meek's frontrunner status at risk
He had the race to himself for most of the cycle, but a new Quinnipiac poll shows that Congressman Kendrick Meek's status at the leading Democrat in the field is perilous to say the least. Meek now holds a lead of just two points (29-27) over wealthy newcomer Jeff Greene, with former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre much further back at 3%. Greene, whose worth is in the billion-plus range, will certainly have an absurdly big warchest from which to mount a campaign.
SC-Sen: Clyburn wants investigation of how SC went Greene
Longtime South Carolina Democratic Congressman Jim Clyburn is asking for an investigation in how Alvin Greene managed to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in South Carolina. Clyburn goes so far as to allege that Greene was a plant, presumably on behalf of either the South Carolina GOP or Senator Jim DeMint, who will cruise to re-election now that he has to worry only about the underfunded (if $0 counts as underfunded) Greene, who as a bonus, is awaiting felony obscenity charges.
UT-Sen: Ousted GOP incumbent will endorse a successor in primary
This has to be a precedent-setter: having been ousted at the GOP convention in Utah several weeks ago, incumbent Utah Senator Robert Bennett will take the unusual step of offering his endorsement to one of the two men who emerged from that convention and headed to a primary. Bennett will endorse Tim Bridgewater, the forty-something businessman who is being challenged by Mike Lee for the nod.
THE U.S. HOUSE
KS-02: Jenkins draws late, possibly tough, Dem challenger
One district that had been essentially left for dead by Democrats this year was the one occupied by freshman Republican Lynn Jenkins. That changed at the filing deadline, as Jenkins drew a potentially intriguing Democratic challenger. The Democrat is Sean Tevis, who raised six figures from small donors in a longshot state legislative bid that he wound up narrowly losing (52-48).
MD-01: GOP frontrunner outed as a birther
This one is not a surprise, necessarily, given that this guy was a CfG guy from the get-go and limned himself as a staunch member of the political right. But you can now apparently add birther to the descriptions befitting one Andy Harris. Harris, whose 2008 GOP primary win drove moderate Wayne Gilchrest from Congress, went on to lose the general election to Democrat Frank Kratovil. Harris, on a radio program this week, responded to a listener question by saying he understood why people would be concerned about "why isn't all the truth coming out" about Obama's Hawaiian birth certificate.
VA-05: GOP nominee Hurt-ing from right-wing Indie commitment
While several conservatives are now rallying around the GOP nominee, Rob Hurt, in the toss-up race against Democratic freshman Tom Perriello, Hurt's path to unity hit a roadblock in the form of Jeff Clark. Clark, a conservative, followed through on a vow made during the GOP primary to file as an Independent if Hurt, pilloried by the Tea Party crowd during the primaries, won the nod.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CT-Gov: Clear leaders emerging in primary battles
The same Quinnipiac poll that explored the Blumenthal-McMahon Senate battle looked at the gubernatorial primaries, and found definite frontrunners for the nominations. On the Democratic side, Ned Lamont still maintains a double-digit edge (39-22) over Dan Malloy. Name recognition might explain some (though likely not all) of the disparity. Lamont is known to more than half of the state, while Malloy draws name recognition from roughly a third of the state. On the GOP side, as he has done all along, former ambassador Tom Foley leads the field easily. He draws support from 39% of Connecticut GOPers, versus just 12% for Lt. Governor Michael Fedele.
FL-Gov: New Q poll--McCollum now the underdog for GOP nod
What a difference two months and several million dollars can make. In the span of several weeks, wealthy health care magnate Rick Scott has gone from "who's he?" to the frontrunner for the Republican nod to be Governor of Florida. According to the new poll from Quinnipiac, Scott holds a surprising thirteen-point edge (44-31) over Bill McCollum, the state Attorney General and longtime former Congressman.
SC-Gov: Haley claims dominant runoff lead versus Barrett
With the ever-present caveat about internal polling, here is the first runoff poll involving state legislator Nikki Haley and Congressman Gresham Barrett: Haley's polling says it will be an absolute landslide. Haley touts the new poll, which gives her a seemingly insurmountable 62-28 lead over Barrett. During the first round of balloting on Tuesday, Haley led her fellow conservative Republican by a 49-22 margin.
TX-Gov: Suit filed in possible GOP/Green party nexus
The Texas Democratic Party is heading to court, filing an injunction to learn how the Green Party of Texas managed to afford a petition drive that might land them on the November ballot. At issue is the source of funding for that drive, which the Texas Dems allege came from conservative allies of Governor Rick Perry. Perry would certainly benefit from a Green Party candidate drawing anti-incumbent votes away from his principal challenger, Democrat Bill White. What is known raises suspicion: the architect of the petition drive was an Arizona political consultant with ties to the GOP.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Let's try a little bit of "the Math", Rasmussen style. Today, Ras released a poll showing newly-minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle leading Nevada Democratic incumbent Harry Reid. By eleven points. However, if we use recent precedent of post-primary/post-convention polling (see: Kentucky and Connecticut), it looks like we can add somewhere between 18-22 points to the Democratic candidate's total after a few weeks.
So, does that mean that Reid will be up about ten points by July?!?
AL-Gov: Robert Bentley (R) 56%, Ron Sparks (D) 37%
AL-Gov: Bradley Byrne (R) 49%, Ron Sparks (D) 40%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 47%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 36%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 50%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 39%
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