Intrade as of early am Aug 16
Intrade as of early am Aug 16
It's way too early to know what this means, as Rick Perry's buzz is going to precede his baggage and any unforced errors. But three days after a "win" in the Iowa straw poll and corn dog eat-off photo contest, Michele Bachmann comes in on Intrade in Huntsman-Palin territory (6.7) while Perry (37.7) laps both Bachmann and Romney (31.6%) to take the lead.
The Intrade numbers are more a statement on Romney, the shaky frontrunner (ex-frontrunner?) and Bachmann's fading star than on Perry as of yet. But it is interesting to see the position-setting with Perry now in it to win it for the tea party, which has completely taken over the Republican party.
Not all the press is positive. Here's Fergus Cullen, an editorial page columnist for The New Hampshire Union Leader and a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party:
Perry will face some Texas fatigue from the Republican nominating electorate. Bad memories of the 2006 and 2008 blowouts are still fresh among Republicans, especially in the Northeast where scores of Republican candidates were defeated because of antipathy toward the Bush administration. The Democrats will try to turn any Republican nominee into into another George W. Bush, but why make it easy for them? Republican primary voters who don’t care about electability are a minority. The majority of the primary electorate wants to nominate a candidate who can actually win a general election against President Obama.
And University of Texas-Austin's
Bruce Buchanan:
If, as Republicans hope, President Obama is so weakened on Election Day that anyone who can win their nomination can beat him, then none of this will matter. But if the president is competitive, Mitt Romney is a better Republican bet than Rick Perry.
Ross Douthat still wants the unpopular New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie:
Rick Perry has many of the qualities that Romney seems to lack: backbone, core convictions, a killer instinct and a primal understanding of the right-wing electorate. He also has the better story. Where Romney has to run away from his Massachusetts health care bill and downplay his years as a downsizing artist at Bain Capital, Perry can spend the campaign reminding voters that almost half of the new jobs in Obama’s presidency were created on his watch in Texas.
What Perry doesn’t have, though, is the kind of moderate facade that Americans look for in their presidents. He’s the conservative id made flesh, with none of the postpartisan/uniter-not-a-divider spirit that successful national politicians usually cultivate.
Establishment Republicans have only themselves to blame. If they don't have the backbone and guts to stand up against Perry, Perry is who they'll get.
And since they'll not stand up to the tea party, that's going to make one interesting election. Get your 1964 research going. You'll need the analogies.
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