The Poblano of qualitative pundits projects victory
for President Obama:
Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House. [...] Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
Using his method, Lichtman predicted George H.W. Bush's defeat in 1992 when everybody thought he was a lock for reelection, so hopefully he's right—and, just as importantly, that we send a Democratic Congress back to D.C. with him.